First National Bank Alaska (FBAK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of First National Bank Alaska $284, price $322, upside -11.7%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $150.18 – $16,067 · fair‑value band $213.15 – $355.25 · the $322.00 price screens above the $284.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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First National Bank Alaska, a commercial bank, provides various banking products and services for business, industry, and individual customers primarily in Alaska.
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First National Bank Alaska, a commercial bank, provides various banking products and services for business, industry, and individual customers primarily in Alaska. The company offers savings and checking accounts; money market deposits; safe deposit services; certificates of deposit; individual retirement account; intraFi network deposit; and personal, home equity, and construction loans, as well as loans for stability and growth. It also provides investment, retirement, treasury, trust, and wealth management services; merchant services; and escrow and contract collection, and bankcard services, as well as equipment and vehicle, interim construction, inventory financing, escrow receivable, small business, commercial and industrial, real estate 1-4 and multifamily residential, consumer, construction and development, and real estate loans; line of credit; letters of credit; and corporate financing. In addition, the company offers debit and credit cards, online and mobile banking, fraud prevention, and convenience banking services. The company was formerly known as The First National Bank of Anchorage and changed its name to First National Bank Alaska in September 2001. First National Bank Alaska was founded in 1922 and is based in Anchorage, Alaska.
Stock analysis
First National Bank Alaska (FBAK) currently trades at $322.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $284.20, 11.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $251.65 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $322.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $120.43, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $213.15 (bear) to $355.25 (bull), the price of $322.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
First National Bank Alaska reported revenue of $214M in FY2025 versus $170M in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was $77.5M in FY2025, compounding +7.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 4.56 · EPS (TTM) $25.56 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 36.2% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −12%, FBAK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $213.15Fair Value $284.20Bull $355.25
Price $322.00 · Upside -11.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 48%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price.
Compare First National Bank Alaska with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1059 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)49.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First National Bank Alaska Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FBAK
Frequently asked questions
Is First National Bank Alaska (FBAK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $284.20 versus a price of $322.00, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FBAK?
Our model-based fair value for First National Bank Alaska is $284.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $322.00.
What is the quality score of FBAK?
First National Bank Alaska has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $284.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $213.15, optimistic scenario $355.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First National Bank Alaska stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $284.20, about −12% upside versus a price of $322.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $213.15, optimistic scenario $355.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
First National Bank Alaska reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $225M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does First National Bank Alaska pay a dividend?
First National Bank Alaska currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.48% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First National Bank Alaska would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FBAK use?
Our models discount First National Bank Alaska at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First National Bank Alaska that is +9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First National Bank Alaska (FBAK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First National Bank Alaska grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First National Bank Alaska (+9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.25 %: that much free cash flow First National Bank Alaska produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First National Bank Alaska it is $284.20 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $322.00. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First National Bank Alaska stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, FBAK trades above its calculated fair value: price $322.00, fair value $284.20, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FBAK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($322.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($284.20). For First National Bank Alaska the two are $37.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First National Bank Alaska worth?
The market values First National Bank Alaska at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $322.00; our models calculate a fair value of $284.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FBAK?
Our models span a range for First National Bank Alaska: cautious scenario $213.15, base $284.20, optimistic $355.25 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $322.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FBAK?
First National Bank Alaska trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $284.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
Balance-sheet figures for First National Bank Alaska (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to First National Bank Alaska?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First National Bank Alaska stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $322.00, calculated fair value $284.20 (−12%), Quality Score 60/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FBAK calculated?
We run First National Bank Alaska through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $284.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1 % above its aggregate fair value. First National Bank Alaska itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $322.00. Our model-based fair value is $284.20, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First National Bank Alaska right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of First National Bank Alaska
How large is the market capitalisation of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The market capitalisation of First National Bank Alaska is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First National Bank Alaska is 4.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
Earnings per share at First National Bank Alaska are $25.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The dividend yield of First National Bank Alaska is 2.5% (payout 31.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The net margin of First National Bank Alaska is 36.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First National Bank Alaska is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First National Bank Alaska is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
The operating margin of First National Bank Alaska is 49.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
Revenue at First National Bank Alaska is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First National Bank Alaska (FBAK)?
Earnings per share at First National Bank Alaska are growing +13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Oct 2, 2026