Federal Home Ln Mtg (FMCKM) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $7.4B

A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.13 – $14.10 · fair‑value band $1.91 – $3.18 · the $7.40 price screens above the $2.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Federal Home Ln Mtg (FMCKM) currently trades at $7.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.55, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Federal Home Ln Mtg generated revenue of $22.9B at a net margin of 50.3%. Revenue grew 15.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.9%. Net debt stands at $3.4T. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.91 (bear case) to $3.18 (bull case); at $7.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -66%, FMCKM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($116.59) versus Asset-Based ($14.64). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation operates in the secondary mortgage market in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Single-Family and Multifamily.

Full company description

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation operates in the secondary mortgage market in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Single-Family and Multifamily. The Single-Family segment purchases, securitizes, and guarantees single-family loans; and manages single-family mortgage credit and market risk, as well as manages mortgage-related investments portfolio, single-family securitization activities, and treasury functions. This segment also serves mortgage banking companies, commercial banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, HFAs, savings institutions, and non-depository institutions. The Multifamily segment engages in the purchase, securitization, and guarantee of multifamily loans; issuance of multifamily K certificates; manages multifamily mortgage credit and market risk; and invests in multifamily loans and mortgage-related securities. It also serves banks and other depository institutions, insurance companies, money managers, central banks, pension funds, state and local governments, REITs, non-depository institutions, and brokers and dealers. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Federal Home Ln Mtg reported revenue of $23.3B in FY2025 versus $4.4B in FY2021, a compound +51.9%/yr. Reported net income was $10.7B in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.

FMCKM screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Rocket Companies, Inc →

Peer Group

Mortgage Finance · 93 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.