Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Five Point Holdings LLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.98 – $8.73 · fair‑value band $5.41 – $14.77 · the $4.92 price screens below the $8.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
Five Point Holdings, LLC designs, develops, and owns mixed-use planned communities in California, the United States. It operates through Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Hearthstone segments. The company sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers.
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Five Point Holdings, LLC designs, develops, and owns mixed-use planned communities in California, the United States. It operates through Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Hearthstone segments. The company sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers. It also provides development management services; and asset management services to land banking funds that are primarily focused on acquiring, developing, and managing residential lot option programs. The company was formerly known as Newhall Holding Company, LLC and changed its name to Five Point Holdings, LLC in May 2016. Five Point Holdings, LLC was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock analysis
Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) currently trades at $4.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.50, implying the stock looks roughly 42.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $14.77 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the $4.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.78, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.41 (bear) to $14.77 (bull), the price of $4.92 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Five Point Holdings LLC reported revenue of $110M in FY2025 versus $224M in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $71.0M in FY2025, compounding +81.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $735M · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 5.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.6100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 64.5% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 73%, FPH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.41Fair Value $8.50Bull $14.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4412 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−53.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+51.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+50.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.43% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → −7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Five Point Holdings LLC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 573 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)41% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−71% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Five Point Holdings LLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FPH
Frequently asked questions
Is Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.50 versus a price of $4.92, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FPH?
Our model-based fair value for Five Point Holdings LLC is $8.50 (as of Sep 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.92.
What is the quality score of FPH?
Five Point Holdings LLC has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.50 (as of Sep 20, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.41, optimistic scenario $14.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Five Point Holdings LLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.50, about +73% upside versus a price of $4.92 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.41, optimistic scenario $14.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Five Point Holdings LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $110M (latest available figure, as of Sep 20, 2026).
Does Five Point Holdings LLC pay a dividend?
Five Point Holdings LLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Five Point Holdings LLC would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.5 % per year. As of Sep 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FPH use?
Our models discount Five Point Holdings LLC at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Five Point Holdings LLC that is +7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Five Point Holdings LLC grew -6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Five Point Holdings LLC (+7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.30 %: that much free cash flow Five Point Holdings LLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Five Point Holdings LLC it is $8.50 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026), against a price of $4.92. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Five Point Holdings LLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 20, 2026, FPH trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.92, fair value $8.50, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.50). For Five Point Holdings LLC the two are $3.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Five Point Holdings LLC worth?
The market values Five Point Holdings LLC at about $735M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 20, 2026). Per share that is $4.92; our models calculate a fair value of $8.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FPH?
Our models span a range for Five Point Holdings LLC: cautious scenario $5.41, base $8.50, optimistic $14.77 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026, price $4.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FPH?
Five Point Holdings LLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 6.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Five Point Holdings LLC (as of Sep 20, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FPH from its 52-week high?
Five Point Holdings LLC trades at $4.92, about 26% below its 52-week high of $6.64 and 7% above the low of $4.60 (as of Sep 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Five Point Holdings LLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Five Point Holdings LLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 20, 2026: price $4.92, calculated fair value $8.50 (+73%), Quality Score 56/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FPH calculated?
We run Five Point Holdings LLC through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Five Point Holdings LLC currently trades 73 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $4.92. Our model-based fair value is $8.50, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Five Point Holdings LLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($5.41 to $14.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Five Point Holdings LLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The market capitalisation of Five Point Holdings LLC is $735M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Five Point Holdings LLC is 5.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Earnings per share at Five Point Holdings LLC are $0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The dividend yield of Five Point Holdings LLC is 0.1% (payout 0.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The net margin of Five Point Holdings LLC is 64.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Five Point Holdings LLC is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Five Point Holdings LLC is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The operating margin of Five Point Holdings LLC is −70.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Revenue at Five Point Holdings LLC is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Earnings per share at Five Point Holdings LLC are growing −52.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) carry?
The net debt of Five Point Holdings LLC is $91.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 20, 2026