Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Five Point Holdings LLC stock $4.47, price $4.61, that is 3.0% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.98 – $8.47 · fair‑value band $3.06 – $5.70 · the $4.61 price screens above the $4.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Five Point Holdings, LLC designs, develops, and owns mixed-use planned communities in California, the United States. It operates through Valencia, San Francisco, Great Park, and Hearthstone segments.
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The company sells residential and commercial land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers.
It also provides development management services; and asset management services to land banking funds that are primarily focused on acquiring, developing, and managing residential lot option programs.
The company was formerly known as Newhall Holding Company, LLC and changed its name to Five Point Holdings, LLC in May 2016. Five Point Holdings, LLC was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock analysis
Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) currently trades at $4.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.47, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.02 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the $4.61 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.85, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.06 (bear) to $5.70 (bull), the price of $4.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Five Point Holdings LLC reported revenue of $110M in FY2025 versus $224M in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $71.0M in FY2025, compounding +81.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $688M Small · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 2.52 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Net margin 24.9% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin −34.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −3%, FPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.06Fair Value $4.47Bull$5.70
Price $4.61 · Downside -3.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3312 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleGreg McWilliamsOfficer111,037 shares at $5.23$580,724Mar 9, 2026
SaleKim ToblerOfficer18,714 shares at $6.01$112,471Dec 4, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+52.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+52.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42.9% vs 0.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → −7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 490 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)64.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−34.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Five Point Holdings LLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FPH
Frequently asked questions
Is Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.47 versus a price of $4.61, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FPH?
Our model-based fair value for Five Point Holdings LLC is $4.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.61.
What is the quality score of FPH?
Five Point Holdings LLC has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.06, optimistic scenario $5.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Five Point Holdings LLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.47, about 3% lower versus a price of $4.61 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.06, optimistic scenario $5.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Five Point Holdings LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $118M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Five Point Holdings LLC would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FPH use?
Our models discount Five Point Holdings LLC at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Five Point Holdings LLC that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Five Point Holdings LLC grew -6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Five Point Holdings LLC (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.26 %: that much free cash flow Five Point Holdings LLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Five Point Holdings LLC it is $4.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $4.61. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Five Point Holdings LLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FPH trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.61, fair value $4.47, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.47). For Five Point Holdings LLC the two are $0.1400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Five Point Holdings LLC worth?
The market values Five Point Holdings LLC at about $688M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $4.61; our models calculate a fair value of $4.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FPH?
Our models span a range for Five Point Holdings LLC: cautious scenario $3.06, base $4.47, optimistic $5.70 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $4.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FPH?
Five Point Holdings LLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.47 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 3.4 (reported for FY2025: 9.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 33.1. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 15.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Five Point Holdings LLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FPH from its 52-week high?
Five Point Holdings LLC trades at $4.61, about 27% below its 52-week high of $6.30 and 13% above the low of $4.08 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Five Point Holdings LLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Five Point Holdings LLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $4.61, calculated fair value $4.47 (−3%), Quality Score 60/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FPH calculated?
We run Five Point Holdings LLC through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Five Point Holdings LLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $4.61. Our model-based fair value is $4.47, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Five Point Holdings LLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($3.06 to $5.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Five Point Holdings LLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The market capitalisation of Five Point Holdings LLC is $688M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Five Point Holdings LLC is 2.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Earnings per share at Five Point Holdings LLC are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The net margin of Five Point Holdings LLC is 24.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Five Point Holdings LLC is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Five Point Holdings LLC is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
The operating margin of Five Point Holdings LLC is −34.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Revenue at Five Point Holdings LLC is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH)?
Earnings per share at Five Point Holdings LLC are growing +228% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) carry?
The net debt of Five Point Holdings LLC is $91.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026