Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.1B
Federal Signal Corporation
FSS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $60.33 to $60.75 (+0.7%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +7.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($95.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($36.02 to $95.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.22 – $133.86 · fair‑value band $36.02 – $95.76 · the $128.21 price screens above the $60.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) currently trades at $128.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $60.75, implying the stock looks roughly 52.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Federal Signal Corporation generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 11.6%. Revenue grew 34.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.5%. Net debt stands at $531M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.02 (bear case) to $95.76 (bull case); at $128.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -53%, FSS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($73.66) versus Dividend Discount ($7.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group.
Full company description
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group. The company offers street sweepers, sewer cleaners, industrial vacuum loaders, safe-digging trucks, dump truck bodies, and trailers, as well as waterblasting, road-marking, line-removal, metal extraction support equipment, and multi-purpose maintenance vehicles under the ELGIN, VACTOR, GUZZLER, TRUVAC, WESTECH, JETSTREAM, BLASTERS, MARK RITE LINES, HOG, NEW WAY, TRACKLESS, OX BODIES, CRYSTEEL, J-CRAFT, DURACLASS, RUGBY, TRAVIS, OSW, NTE, WTB, GROUND FORCE, TOWHAUL, BUCKS, AND SWITCH-N-GO brands; and provides refuse and recycling collection vehicles through a dealer network or direct sales to service customers. It is also involved in sale of parts, service and repair, equipment rentals, and training. The company also provides systems for community alerting, emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and industrial communications; public safety equipment, such as vehicle lightbars and sirens, industrial signaling equipment, public warning systems, and general alarm/public address systems under the Federal Signal, Federal Signal VAMA, and Victor brand names through wholesalers, distributors, independent manufacturer representatives, original equipment manufacturers, and direct sales force, as well as independent foreign distributors. Federal Signal Corporation was founded in 1901 and is based in Downers Grove, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Federal Signal Corporation reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was $247M in FY2025, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2021.
FSS screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Federal Signal (FSS) Outperforming Other Auto-Tires-Trucks Stocks This Year?
- Should You Sell Federal Signal Stock After Its Board Chair Offloaded 13,720 Shares?
- Looking for a Growth Stock? 3 Reasons Why Federal Signal (FSS) is a Solid Choice
- Federal Signal (FSS) Is Up 5.1% After Record Q2 2026 And Raised Sales Outlook - What's Changed
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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