Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Frontdoor Inc stock $77.02, price $97.09, that is 20.7% below the price, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.55 – $97.09 · fair‑value band $52.49 – $98.62 · the $97.09 price screens above the $77.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Frontdoor, Inc. provides home warranties and new home builder warranties in the United States. The company offers customizable home warranties that help customers to protect and maintain their homes from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances.
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Its home warranty customers subscribe to an annual service plan agreement that covers the repair or replacement of principal components of home systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers, and ranges/ovens/cooktops, as well as pools, spas, and pumps; and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems.
It also offers non-warranty home services through website and application; a one-stop app experience for home repair and maintenance using video chat, augmented reality, and computer vision and machining learning.
The company operates under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brand names. Frontdoor, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) currently trades at $97.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $77.02, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $79.69 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $97.09 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $25.65, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $52.49 (bear) to $98.62 (bull), the price of $97.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Frontdoor Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $255M in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B Mid · P/E ratio 24.2 · P/S ratio 3.16 · EPS (TTM) $4.01 · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 90.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −21%, FTDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$52.49Fair Value $77.02Bull$98.62
Price $97.09 · Downside -20.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.43 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.0% vs 9.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 19%
2025 sits 62% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Frontdoor benefits from recurring home warranty revenue with returning membership growth, but elevated debt and service margin pressures undermine durability.
Main risk: Platforms such as Angi offering direct booking of contractors might draw homeowners toward pay-per-service models instead of prepaid home warranties, pressuring Frontdoor's membership growth and margins.
Frontdoor earns recurring revenue from its home warranty members, and recent results mark the first return of membership growth in five years. This could expand the stable base if post-promotion retention stays high, but pressure on out-of-warranty service margins may limit the upside. Will membership gains translate into durable profit growth, or will service costs erode the benefits?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Personal Services · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)90.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B28.53× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.16× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.8× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Frontdoor Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FTDR
Frequently asked questions
Is Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $77.02 versus a price of $97.09, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FTDR?
Our model-based fair value for Frontdoor Inc is $77.02 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $97.09.
What is the quality score of FTDR?
Frontdoor Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $77.02 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $52.49, optimistic scenario $98.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Frontdoor Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $77.02, about 21% lower versus a price of $97.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $52.49, optimistic scenario $98.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Frontdoor Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Frontdoor Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FTDR use?
Our models discount Frontdoor Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Frontdoor Inc that is +12.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Frontdoor Inc grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Frontdoor Inc (+12.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.64 %: that much free cash flow Frontdoor Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Frontdoor Inc it is $77.02 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $97.09. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Frontdoor Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, FTDR trades above its calculated fair value: price $97.09, fair value $77.02, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FTDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($97.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($77.02). For Frontdoor Inc the two are $20.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Frontdoor Inc worth?
The market values Frontdoor Inc at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $97.09; our models calculate a fair value of $77.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FTDR?
Our models span a range for Frontdoor Inc: cautious scenario $52.49, base $77.02, optimistic $98.62 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $97.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FTDR?
Frontdoor Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $77.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 18.4. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 28.5, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of FTDR?
The PEG ratio of Frontdoor Inc is 2.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Frontdoor Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 90.0%, debt of 4.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FTDR from its 52-week high?
Frontdoor Inc trades at $97.09, at its 52-week high of $97.09 and 98% above the low of $49.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $77.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Frontdoor Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, H&R Block, Inc, Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Frontdoor Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $97.09, calculated fair value $77.02 (−21%), Quality Score 71/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FTDR calculated?
We run Frontdoor Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $77.02 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Frontdoor Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $97.09. Our model-based fair value is $77.02, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Frontdoor Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (71/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($52.49 to $98.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) come from?
Earnings per share at Frontdoor Inc grew +8.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Frontdoor Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The market capitalisation of Frontdoor Inc is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Frontdoor Inc is 3.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Earnings per share at Frontdoor Inc are $4.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The net margin of Frontdoor Inc is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Frontdoor Inc is 90.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Frontdoor Inc is 19.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
The operating margin of Frontdoor Inc is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Revenue at Frontdoor Inc is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Frontdoor Inc (FTDR)?
Earnings per share at Frontdoor Inc are growing +16.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) carry?
The net debt of Frontdoor Inc is $646M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026