Frontdoor, Inc (FTDR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.3B
Frontdoor, Inc
FTDR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $74.15 to $75.55 (+1.9%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +24.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($46.07 to $96.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.55 – $90.83 · fair‑value band $46.07 – $96.73 · the $90.83 price screens above the $75.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Frontdoor, Inc (FTDR) currently trades at $90.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.55, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Frontdoor, Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 121.0%. Net debt stands at $646M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $46.07 (bear case) to $96.73 (bull case); at $90.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -17%, FTDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($80.21) versus Asset-Based ($2.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Frontdoor, Inc. provides home warranties and new home builder warranties in the United States. The company offers customizable home warranties that help customers to protect and maintain their homes from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances.
Full company description
Frontdoor, Inc. provides home warranties and new home builder warranties in the United States. The company offers customizable home warranties that help customers to protect and maintain their homes from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances. Its home warranty customers subscribe to an annual service plan agreement that covers the repair or replacement of principal components of home systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers, and ranges/ovens/cooktops, as well as pools, spas, and pumps; and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. It also offers non-warranty home services through website and application; a one-stop app experience for home repair and maintenance using video chat, augmented reality, and computer vision and machining learning. The company operates under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brand names. Frontdoor, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Frontdoor, Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $255M in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
FTDR screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Rollins, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons FTDR is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- Frontdoor, Inc. to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Frontdoor Names Finance and Real Estate Executive Hilla Sferruzza to Board of Directors
Peer Group
Personal Services · 42 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Personal Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins, Inc ROL | $44.47 | $21.11 | -53% |
| Service Corporation SCI | $78.72 | $39.27 | -50% |
| H&R Block, Inc HRB | $41.14 | $78.83 | +92% |
| Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM | $73.99 | $62.41 | -16% |
| Fu Shou Yuan International Group 1448 | HK$2.64 | HK$4.20 | +59% |
| Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 | 48.60 TWD | 31.33 TWD | -36% |
| Carriage Services, Inc CSV | $38.29 | $26.63 | -30% |
| Musti Group MUSTI | €14.35 | €14.08 | -2% |
| Uniao Pet Participacoes S.A AUAU3 | R$3.08 | R$1.37 | -56% |
| Propel Funeral Partners Limited PFP | A$3.20 | A$3.25 | +2% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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