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Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Gibson Energy Inc $7.58, price $21.96, upside -65.5%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Gibson Energy Inc
GBNXF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $7.58 · Strongly overvalued (−65.5%)
!Quality 45/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!7.9% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 45/100
!The models disagree: range $5.35 to $15.06
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.58 – $23.24 · fair‑value band $5.35 – $15.06 · the $21.96 price screens above the $7.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Gibson Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering, storing, optimizing, and processing of liquids and refined products in Canada and the United States. It operates through Infrastructure and Marketing segments.
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Gibson Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering, storing, optimizing, and processing of liquids and refined products in Canada and the United States. It operates through Infrastructure and Marketing segments. The company operates a network of infrastructure assets that include terminals, rail loading and unloading facilities, gathering pipelines, diluent recovery unit, and crude oil processing facility. It also purchases, sells, stores, and optimizes hydrocarbon products, including crude oil, natural gas liquids, road asphalt, roofing flux, frac oils, light and heavy straight run distillate. The company was formerly known as Gibson Energy Holdings ULC and changed its name to Gibson Energy Inc. in April 2011. Gibson Energy Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) currently trades at $21.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.58, 65.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $16.84 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $21.96 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.84, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.35 (bear) to $15.06 (bull), the price of $21.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gibson Energy Inc reported revenue of C$10.7B in FY2025 versus C$7.2B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$197M in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B · P/E ratio 34.3 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Dividend yield 7.9% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −65%, GBNXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.35
Fair Value $7.58
Bull $15.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$4.65
$5.59
$8.27
75
FCF DCF
$3.89
$12.23
$24.78
74
Growth DCF
$4.03
$11.24
$21.34
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$3.89
$12.23
$24.78
74
Owner Earnings
$3.44
$11.53
$23.69
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.47
$10.44
$20.66
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$5.73
$12.36
66
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
$4.40
$9.74
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.46
$9.82
$19.85
61
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.30
$6.59
$13.55
62
10Y P/E Exit
$0.8600
$5.68
$11.56
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.47
$18.64
$25.01
64
Lynch FV
$4.28
$6.12
$7.95
61
PEG = 1.0
$4.28
$6.12
$7.95
57
EPV
$0.1200
$1.84
$3.33
64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$9.93
$19.79
$29.97
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$9.93
$16.84
$20.89
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.44
$11.25
$14.07
63
P/S Multiple
$10.25
$13.66
$17.08
58
P/B Multiple
$4.51
$6.01
$7.51
55
EV/EBIT
n/a
$3.52
$7.09
61
EV/EBITDA
n/a
$2.09
$5.30
62
EV/Revenue
$2.23
$7.81
$13.38
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.67
$2.24
$3.34
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.03
$11.24
$21.34
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.47
$10.44
$19.84
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.65
$5.59
$8.27
75
ROIC Compounder
$0.1200
$1.84
$3.33
65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.64
$10.91
$14.18
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.2% vs 5.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.9% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−3.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)−2.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)−2.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)−1.5%
GBNXF screens overvalued: fair value 65% below the price. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Gibson Energy Announces Renewal of Normal Course Issuer Bid
- Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA and Strategic ...
- Gibson Energy Declares Dividend
- Gibson Energy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results, Highlighted by Record Infrastructure Adjusted EBITDA and Strategic Growth Execution
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $36.65 | $24.66 | −33% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $20.10 | $15.29 | −24% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $30.63 | $28.16 | −8% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | $58.78 | $24.51 | −58% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $277.84 | $65.24 | −77% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.66 | $70.77 | +23% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $88.62 | $80.15 | −10% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $267.29 | $294.02 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.58 versus a price of $21.96, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GBNXF?
Our model-based fair value for Gibson Energy Inc is $7.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.96.
What is the quality score of GBNXF?
Gibson Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.35, optimistic scenario $15.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gibson Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.58, about −65% upside versus a price of $21.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.35, optimistic scenario $15.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
Gibson Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$10.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gibson Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Gibson Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gibson Energy Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GBNXF use?
Our models discount Gibson Energy Inc at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gibson Energy Inc that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gibson Energy Inc grew +16.7 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gibson Energy Inc (+19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.02 %: that much free cash flow Gibson Energy Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gibson Energy Inc it is $7.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $21.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gibson Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GBNXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.96, fair value $7.58, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBNXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.58). For Gibson Energy Inc the two are $14.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gibson Energy Inc worth?
The market values Gibson Energy Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $21.96; our models calculate a fair value of $7.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBNXF?
Our models span a range for Gibson Energy Inc: cautious scenario $5.35, base $7.58, optimistic $15.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $21.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GBNXF from its 52-week high?
Gibson Energy Inc trades at $21.96, about 6% below its 52-week high of $23.24 and 41% above the low of $15.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gibson Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gibson Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $21.96, calculated fair value $7.58 (−65%), Quality Score 45/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBNXF calculated?
We run Gibson Energy Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gibson Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $21.96. Our model-based fair value is $7.58, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gibson Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($5.35 to $15.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gibson Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The market capitalisation of Gibson Energy Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Gibson Energy Inc is 34.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gibson Energy Inc is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
Earnings per share at Gibson Energy Inc are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The dividend yield of Gibson Energy Inc is 7.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The net margin of Gibson Energy Inc is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gibson Energy Inc is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gibson Energy Inc is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
The operating margin of Gibson Energy Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
Revenue at Gibson Energy Inc is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF)?
Earnings per share at Gibson Energy Inc are growing −15.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gibson Energy Inc (GBNXF) carry?
The net debt of Gibson Energy Inc is C$2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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