Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 52.11 MXN – 184.05 MXN · fair‑value band 61.34 MXN – 102.24 MXN · the 129.78 MXN price screens above the 81.79 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally.
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Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally. It operates retail stores and sells various products, including electronics, household items, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty products, books, videos, music, toys, sports items, cellphones, technology products, and other merchandise, as well as traditional Mexican food under the Sanborns Cafés, MixUp, iShop, Sears, Dax, and Saks Fifth Avenue brand names. The company also manufactures and markets products and services, such as electrical and coaxial cables, telecommunications equipment, fiber optics, automotive harnesses, and piping specialized industrial components for construction and infrastructure, energy, automotive, telecommunications, and mining industries under the Condumex brand name; and engages in the installation of pipelines, fabrication and services for petrochemical, infrastructure projects, civil construction, and housing development. In addition, it is involved in the exploration, discovery, production, exploitation, refining, transportation, purchasing, and marketing of hydrocarbons and minerals; transportation of natural gas; exploration, production, and exploitation of geothermal energy; and investment, construction, and transmission of gas pipeline. Further, the company engages in the research and development; design of automotive harnesses; development of software; testing of embedded automotive systems; and engineering services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) currently trades at 129.78 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 81.79 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 120.52 MXN per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the 129.78 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 21.07 MXN, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 61.34 MXN (bear) to 102.24 MXN (bull), the price of 129.78 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 192B MXN in FY2025 versus 125B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was 8.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 292B MXN (≈ $17.0B) · P/E ratio 33.4 · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) 3.89 MXN · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −37%, GCARSOA1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 61.34 MXNFair Value 81.79 MXNBull 102.24 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.82 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+27.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 377 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−42% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.97× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.49× · Pricier than median
P/FCF1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GCARSOA1
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 81.79 MXN versus a price of 129.78 MXN, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCARSOA1?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 81.79 MXN (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 129.78 MXN.
What is the quality score of GCARSOA1?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 81.79 MXN (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 61.34 MXN, optimistic scenario 102.24 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 81.79 MXN, about −37% upside versus a price of 129.78 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 61.34 MXN, optimistic scenario 102.24 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 191B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GCARSOA1 use?
Our models discount Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V that is +9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (+9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.51 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V it is 81.79 MXN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 129.78 MXN. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, GCARSOA1 trades above its calculated fair value: price 129.78 MXN, fair value 81.79 MXN, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCARSOA1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (129.78 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (81.79 MXN). For Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V the two are 47.99 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V at about 292B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 129.78 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 81.79 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCARSOA1?
Our models span a range for Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 61.34 MXN, base 81.79 MXN, optimistic 102.24 MXN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 129.78 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GCARSOA1?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 81.79 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCARSOA1 from its 52-week high?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V trades at 129.78 MXN, about 17% below its 52-week high of 156.10 MXN and 15% above the low of 113.10 MXN (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 81.79 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ITOCHU Corporation, 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 129.78 MXN, calculated fair value 81.79 MXN (−37%), Quality Score 60/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCARSOA1 calculated?
We run Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 81.79 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was 129.78 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 81.79 MXN, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (102.24 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 292B MXN (≈ $17.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 1.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V are 3.89 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 1.7% (payout 57.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The net margin of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
The operating margin of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Revenue at Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V are growing −5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 13.2B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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