Greif, Inc. (GEFB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Greif, Inc. $58.90, price $114, upside -48.2%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.67 – $113.59 · fair‑value band $28.61 – $123.91 · the $113.59 price screens above the $58.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Greif, Inc. engages in the production of industrial packaging products and services. It operates through the following segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging and Services, and Land Management.
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Greif, Inc. engages in the production of industrial packaging products and services. It operates through the following segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging and Services, and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging segment includes steel, fiber, and plastic drums, intermediate bulk containers, closure systems, transit protection products, water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers. The Paper Packaging & Services segment focuses on the production and sale of containerboard, corrugated sheets, containers, and other products. The Land Management segment involves harvesting and regeneration of timber. The company was founded by William Greif and Albert Vanderwyst in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, OH.
Stock analysis
Greif, Inc. (GEFB) currently trades at $113.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.90, implying the stock looks roughly 92.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $164.33 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $113.59 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $35.60, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.61 (bear) to $123.91 (bull), the price of $113.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Greif, Inc. reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2024 versus $4.6B in FY2019, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $269M in FY2024, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2019.
Key figures
Market cap $5.4B · P/E ratio 18.0 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $6.80 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −48%, GEFB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $28.61Fair Value $58.90Bull $123.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.80 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~12Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 271 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.57× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/FCF23.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)37· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)77· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greif, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEFB
Frequently asked questions
Is Greif, Inc. (GEFB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.90 versus a price of $113.59, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEFB?
Our model-based fair value for Greif, Inc. is $58.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $113.59.
What is the quality score of GEFB?
Greif, Inc. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.61, optimistic scenario $123.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greif, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.90, about −48% upside versus a price of $113.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.61, optimistic scenario $123.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Greif, Inc. pay a dividend?
Greif, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greif, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +19.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GEFB use?
Our models discount Greif, Inc. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greif, Inc. that is +19.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greif, Inc. (GEFB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Greif, Inc. grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +19.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greif, Inc. (GEFB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greif, Inc. (+19.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.34 %: that much free cash flow Greif, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greif, Inc. it is $58.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $113.59. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greif, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GEFB trades above its calculated fair value: price $113.59, fair value $58.90, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEFB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($113.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.90). For Greif, Inc. the two are $54.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greif, Inc. worth?
The market values Greif, Inc. at about $5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $113.59; our models calculate a fair value of $58.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEFB?
Our models span a range for Greif, Inc.: cautious scenario $28.61, base $58.90, optimistic $123.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $113.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEFB?
Greif, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $58.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greif, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 1.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEFB from its 52-week high?
Greif, Inc. trades at $113.59, about 22% below its 52-week high of $93.33 and 97% above the low of $57.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $58.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greif, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greif, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $113.59, calculated fair value $58.90 (−48%), Quality Score 41/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEFB calculated?
We run Greif, Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $58.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Greif, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $113.59. Our model-based fair value is $58.90, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greif, Inc. right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($28.61 to $123.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Greif, Inc. (GEFB) come from?
Earnings per share at Greif, Inc. grew +7.6 % a year from 2008 to 2019. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.8 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Greif, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The market capitalisation of Greif, Inc. is $5.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greif, Inc. is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
Earnings per share at Greif, Inc. are $6.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The dividend yield of Greif, Inc. is 3.8% (payout 64.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The net margin of Greif, Inc. is 4.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greif, Inc. is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greif, Inc. (GEFB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greif, Inc. is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net debt does Greif, Inc. (GEFB) carry?
The net debt of Greif, Inc. is $2.7B (fiscal year 2019, ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026