GEK TERNA Holdings (GEKTERNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GR · Market cap €4.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €27.22 to €23.38 (−14.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€29.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.86 – €46.92 · fair‑value band €17.53 – €29.22 · the €44.54 price screens above the €23.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
GEK TERNA Holdings (GEKTERNA) currently trades at €44.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €23.38, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, GEK TERNA Holdings generated revenue of €3.9B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at €4.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €17.53 (bear case) to €29.22 (bull case); at €44.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 139% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -48%, GEKTERNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€33.32) versus Asset-Based (€13.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GEK TERNA Holdings, Real Estate, Construction S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction, real estate, mining, electricity, and concession businesses in Greece, the Balkans, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
GEK TERNA Holdings, Real Estate, Construction S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction, real estate, mining, electricity, and concession businesses in Greece, the Balkans, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company is involved in the construction of motorways, rail networks, buildings, hospitals, museums, industrial facilities, hydroelectric projects, dams, power plants, etc. for public and private sectors; and the financing, management, and commercial operation of concession projects, such as motorways and parking stations. It also develops and operates wind farms, hydroelectric projects, waste treatment and biogas production plants, and photovoltaic parks, as well as develops pumped storage and infrastructure projects. In addition, the company produces 905.3 MW of electric energy and trades in natural gas. Further, it engages in the acquisition, development, and exploitation of real estate properties, including business centers, industrial parks, entertainment parks, residential properties, hotels, etc.; production of quarry products; and exploitation of magnesite quarries. Additionally, the company operates thermal power plants with a total installed capacity of 147 MW and 435 MW in Viotia, Greece. GEK TERNA Holdings, Real Estate, Construction S.A. was formerly known as Ermis Real Estate Constructions Enterprises S.A. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GEK TERNA Holdings reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +35.5%/yr. Reported net income was €139M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
GEKTERNA screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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