GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A stock €27.22, price €39.26, that is 30.7% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.53 – €47.18 · fair‑value band €17.53 – €36.10 · the €39.26 price screens above the €27.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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GEK TERNA Holdings, Real Estate, Construction S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction, real estate, mining, electricity, and concession businesses in Greece, the Balkans, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the United States, and internationally.
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The company is involved in the construction of motorways, rail networks, buildings, hospitals, museums, industrial facilities, hydroelectric projects, dams, power plants, etc. for public and private sectors; and the financing, management, and commercial operation of concession projects, such as motorways and parking stations.
It also develops and operates wind farms, hydroelectric projects, waste treatment and biogas production plants, and photovoltaic parks, as well as develops pumped storage and infrastructure projects. In addition, the company produces 905.3 MW of electric energy and trades in natural gas.
Further, it engages in the acquisition, development, and exploitation of real estate properties, including business centers, industrial parks, entertainment parks, residential properties, hotels, etc.; production of quarry products; and exploitation of magnesite quarries.
Additionally, the company operates thermal power plants with a total installed capacity of 147 MW and 435 MW in Viotia, Greece.
GEK TERNA Holdings, Real Estate, Construction S.A. was formerly known as Ermis Real Estate Constructions Enterprises S.A. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
Stock analysis
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA) currently trades at €39.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €27.22, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €32.30 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the €39.26 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €5.25, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €17.53 (bear) to €36.10 (bull), the price of €39.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +35.5%/yr. Reported net income was €139M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.0B Mid · P/E ratio 25.5 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) €1.54 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −31%, GEKTERNA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€17.53Fair Value €27.22Bull€36.10
Price €39.26 · Downside -30.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+42.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.41.7% vs 14.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 8%
AI conclusion: Concessions deliver stable cash flows from motorway tolls as the main strength, while cyclical construction exposure and negative free cash flow remain the core weakness.
Main risk: Economic swings in large construction projects risk hitting operating profitability and cash flows despite stable concession income.
GEK TERNA recently secured investment grade ratings and launched an EMTN programme, giving it direct access to the Eurobond market for its financing needs. Concessions, especially motorway tolls, now account for the bulk of operating profitability with more stable cash flows, while construction remains tied to large projects and economic swings. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the concessions shift deliver enough predictability to offset the cyclical exposure in the rest of the business?
Compare GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−30.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.5× · Pricier than median
P/B2.01× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.99× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.67× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEKTERNA
Frequently asked questions
Is GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €27.22 versus a price of €39.26, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEKTERNA?
Our model-based fair value for GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is €27.22 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €39.26.
What is the quality score of GEKTERNA?
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €27.22 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.53, optimistic scenario €36.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €27.22, about 31% lower versus a price of €39.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €17.53, optimistic scenario €36.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A pay a dividend?
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A has a dividend yield of 1.0%.
What is the intrinsic value of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A it is €27.22 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €39.26. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, GEKTERNA trades above its calculated fair value: price €39.26, fair value €27.22, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEKTERNA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€39.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€27.22). For GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A the two are €12.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A worth?
The market values GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A at about €4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €39.26; our models calculate a fair value of €27.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEKTERNA?
Our models span a range for GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A: cautious scenario €17.53, base €27.22, optimistic €36.10 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €39.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEKTERNA?
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €27.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 13.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 15.1.
What is the PEG ratio of GEKTERNA?
The PEG ratio of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 0.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
Balance-sheet figures for GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 2.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEKTERNA from its 52-week high?
GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A trades at €39.26, about 17% below its 52-week high of €47.18 and 72% above the low of €22.79 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €27.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €39.26, calculated fair value €27.22 (−31%), Quality Score 32/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEKTERNA calculated?
We run GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A through 12 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €27.22 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €39.26. Our model-based fair value is €27.22, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€36.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€17.53 to €36.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The market capitalisation of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is €4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 0.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
Earnings per share at GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A are €1.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The dividend yield of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 1.0% (payout 26.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The net margin of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
The operating margin of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
Revenue at GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA)?
Earnings per share at GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A are growing +4.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA) generate?
The free cash flow of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is −€779M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A (GEKTERNA) carry?
The net debt of GEK TERNA Holdings Real Estate Construction S.A is €4.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026