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Genesis Energy LP (GEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Genesis Energy LP $23.42, price $14.66, upside +59.8%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · ISIN US3719271047

GE Genesis Energy LP logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Genesis Energy LP

GEL · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $23.42 · Strongly undervalued (+60%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·4.71% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.30 $6.02 Fair Value $23.42 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.02 – $18.30 · fair‑value band $23.42 – $47.62 · the $14.66 price screens below the $23.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Genesis Energy, L.P. engages in the midstream segment of the crude oil and natural gas industry in the United States. It operates through Offshore Pipeline Transportation; Marine Transportation; and Onshore Facilities and Transportation segments.

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Genesis Energy, L.P. engages in the midstream segment of the crude oil and natural gas industry in the United States. It operates through Offshore Pipeline Transportation; Marine Transportation; and Onshore Facilities and Transportation segments. The Offshore Pipeline Transportation segment engages in offshore crude oil and natural gas pipeline transportation and handling operations, as well as provision of a suite of services to integrated and large independent energy companies. This segment also owns interests in offshore crude oil and natural gas pipeline systems, platforms, and related infrastructure. The Marine Transportation segment includes inland marine fleet, which transports intermediate refined petroleum products, such as asphalt; offshore marine fleet, which transports crude oil and refined petroleum products; and M/T American Phoenix, a modern, double-hulled tanker. The Onshore Facilities and Transportation segment provides transportation and facilities services to crude oil refiners and producers by purchasing, transporting, storing, blending, and marketing crude oil and refined products; and owns a portfolio of logistical assets consisting of pipelines, trucks, tanks and terminals, barges and rail unloading facilities. This segment also owns and operates onshore common carrier crude oil pipeline systems and operational crude oil rail unloading facilities; and is involved in processing of high sulfur gas streams for refineries, as well as selling of related by-product, sodium hydrosulfide. Genesis Energy, L.P. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

Genesis Energy LP (GEL) currently trades at $14.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.42, implying the stock looks roughly 37.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 14 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $23.42 (bear) to $47.62 (bull), the price of $14.66 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Genesis Energy LP reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1900 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 17.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 60%, GEL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.42 Fair Value $23.42 Bull $47.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a n/a $9.90 77
Growth DCF n/a n/a $8.89 75
Owner Earnings n/a n/a $5.09 73
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a n/a $9.90 77
Owner Earnings n/a n/a $5.09 73
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a n/a $5.54 72
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a n/a $3.02 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.67 $12.14 $14.44 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.67 $12.52 $15.54 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a $1.38 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9700 $1.30 $1.95 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a n/a $8.89 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−13.5% (2020) → 15.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.6% a year for the price.

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 20.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.05× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)61 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 45
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 51
DIVIDEND (yield)94 · sector 81

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Enbridge Inc ENB $47.90 $36.91 −23%
The Williams Companies, Inc WMB $70.98 $11.73 −83%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $38.01 $24.61 −35%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $31.27 $28.24 −10%
TC Energy Corporation TRP $59.78 $24.51 −59%
Energy Transfer LP, ET $20.40 $19.43 −5%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $59.16 $70.84 +20%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $90.09 $80.35 −11%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $282.15 $79.61 −72%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $272.96 $349.73 +28%

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$23.42 +37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Genesis Energy LP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEL

Frequently asked questions

Is Genesis Energy LP (GEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.42 versus a price of $14.66, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GEL?
Our model-based fair value for Genesis Energy LP is $23.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.66.
What is the quality score of GEL?
Genesis Energy LP has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.42, optimistic scenario $47.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genesis Energy LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.42, about +60% upside versus a price of $14.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.42, optimistic scenario $47.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Genesis Energy LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Genesis Energy LP pay a dividend?
Genesis Energy LP currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genesis Energy LP would have to grow free cash flow by +42.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GEL use?
Our models discount Genesis Energy LP at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genesis Energy LP that is +42.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genesis Energy LP (GEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genesis Energy LP grew -2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +42.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genesis Energy LP (GEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genesis Energy LP (+42.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.92 %: that much free cash flow Genesis Energy LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genesis Energy LP it is $23.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.66. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Genesis Energy LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GEL trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.66, fair value $23.42, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.42). For Genesis Energy LP the two are $8.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genesis Energy LP worth?
The market values Genesis Energy LP at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.66; our models calculate a fair value of $23.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEL?
Our models span a range for Genesis Energy LP: cautious scenario $23.42, base $23.42, optimistic $47.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GEL?
The PEG ratio of Genesis Energy LP is 3.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genesis Energy LP (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEL from its 52-week high?
Genesis Energy LP trades at $14.66, about 20% below its 52-week high of $18.30 and 6% above the low of $13.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genesis Energy LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genesis Energy LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.66, calculated fair value $23.42 (+60%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEL calculated?
We run Genesis Energy LP through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Genesis Energy LP currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.66. Our model-based fair value is $23.42, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genesis Energy LP right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.42). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($23.42 to $47.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Genesis Energy LP

How large is the market capitalisation of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The market capitalisation of Genesis Energy LP is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genesis Energy LP is 1.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Earnings per share at Genesis Energy LP are $−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The dividend yield of Genesis Energy LP is 4.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The net margin of Genesis Energy LP is −0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genesis Energy LP is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genesis Energy LP is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
The operating margin of Genesis Energy LP is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Revenue at Genesis Energy LP is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Genesis Energy LP (GEL)?
Earnings per share at Genesis Energy LP are growing +58.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Genesis Energy LP (GEL) carry?
The net debt of Genesis Energy LP is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 34.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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