G8 Education Limited (GEM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$104M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from A$0.1569 to A$0.1543 (−1.7%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from A$0.0996 (bear) to A$0.1698 (bull), base A$0.1543. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1200 – A$1.35 · fair‑value band A$0.0996 – A$0.1698 · the A$0.1450 price screens below the A$0.1543 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
G8 Education Limited (GEM) currently trades at A$0.1450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1543, implying the stock looks roughly 6.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, G8 Education Limited generated revenue of A$947M at a net margin of -32.0%. Revenue declined 9.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -42.1%. Net debt stands at A$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0996 (bear case) to A$0.1698 (bull case); at A$0.1450, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 6%, GEM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$2.85) versus Asset-Based (A$0.4600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
G8 Education Limited provides early childhood education and care services in Australia. It operates childcare centers; and offers its services under various brands. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Varsity Lakes, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
G8 Education Limited reported revenue of A$947M in FY2025 versus A$845M in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$303M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +5.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch GEM: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 897.37 MXN | -7% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $10.24 | $15.60 | +52% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.45 | $41.45 | +14% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹131.59 | ₹14.81 | -89% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $149.00 | $152.01 | +2% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $116.22 | $135.45 | +17% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $83.39 | $139.45 | +67% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $40.33 | $21.35 | -47% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.66 | $41.45 | +31% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $84.18 | $105.48 | +25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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