G8 Education Ltd (GEM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of G8 Education Ltd A$0.15, price A$0.10, upside +61.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0950 – A$1.35 · fair‑value band A$0.0998 – A$0.1701 · the A$0.0960 price screens below the A$0.1546 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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G8 Education Limited provides early childhood education and care services in Australia. It operates childcare centers; and offers its services under various brands. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Varsity Lakes, Australia.
Stock analysis
G8 Education Ltd (GEM) currently trades at A$0.0960, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1546, implying the stock looks roughly 37.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$1.37 per share, and 15 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$0.0960 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.4600, and 0 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0998 (bear) to A$0.1701 (bull), the price of A$0.0960 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
G8 Education Ltd reported revenue of A$947M in FY2025 versus A$845M in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$303M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$104M (≈ $73.3M) · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.3900 · Net margin −32.0% · Return on equity −42.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% · Operating margin 15.2% · Revenue (TTM) A$947M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 89% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 61%, GEM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0998Fair Value A$0.1546Bull A$0.1701
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−22.1% (2020) → 13.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 142 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+55% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−32% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)20.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.14× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
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Is G8 Education Ltd (GEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1546 versus a price of A$0.0960, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GEM?
Our model-based fair value for G8 Education Ltd is A$0.1546 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0960.
What is the quality score of GEM?
G8 Education Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1546 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0998, optimistic scenario A$0.1701. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the G8 Education Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1546, about +61% upside versus a price of A$0.0960 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0998, optimistic scenario A$0.1701. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
G8 Education Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$947M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For G8 Education Ltd it is A$0.1546 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0960. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is G8 Education Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GEM trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0960, fair value A$0.1546, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0960); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1546). For G8 Education Ltd the two are A$0.0586 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is G8 Education Ltd worth?
The market values G8 Education Ltd at about A$104M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0960; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1546 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEM?
Our models span a range for G8 Education Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0998, base A$0.1546, optimistic A$0.1701 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0960). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GEM?
The PEG ratio of G8 Education Ltd is 0.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
Balance-sheet figures for G8 Education Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −42.1%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEM from its 52-week high?
G8 Education Ltd trades at A$0.0960, about 89% below its 52-week high of A$0.8650 and 1% above the low of A$0.0950 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1546 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to G8 Education Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Grand Canyon Education, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is G8 Education Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0960, calculated fair value A$0.1546 (+61%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEM calculated?
We run G8 Education Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1546, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. G8 Education Ltd currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0960. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1546, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with G8 Education Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0998). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of G8 Education Ltd (GEM) come from?
Earnings per share at G8 Education Ltd grew −10.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.2 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of G8 Education Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
The market capitalisation of G8 Education Ltd is A$104M (≈ $73.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of G8 Education Ltd is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
Earnings per share at G8 Education Ltd are A$−0.3900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
The net margin of G8 Education Ltd is −32.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of G8 Education Ltd is −42.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of G8 Education Ltd is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
The operating margin of G8 Education Ltd is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
Revenue at G8 Education Ltd is growing −9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at G8 Education Ltd (GEM)?
Earnings per share at G8 Education Ltd are growing +16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does G8 Education Ltd (GEM) generate?
The free cash flow of G8 Education Ltd is A$117M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does G8 Education Ltd (GEM) carry?
The net debt of G8 Education Ltd is A$1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026