Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Gema Grahasarana Tbk IDR 293, price IDR 78, upside +275.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk operates as an interior contractor, and furniture manufacturer and distributor in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Interior, Furniture, Mechanical and Electrical; and Distribution and Trade segments.
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PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk operates as an interior contractor, and furniture manufacturer and distributor in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Interior, Furniture, Mechanical and Electrical; and Distribution and Trade segments. It offers interior fit-outs, furniture and panel manufacturing, mechanical and electrical installation, maintenance, and logistics services. The company offers customized wooden furniture, panels, office furniture, metal, and rattan; and home and office furnishing products. Further, it is involved in the trading of laminated material interior and furniture; house, and office furniture and equipment; and interior and furniture components, as well as setting up living, working, commercial, and hospitality spaces. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia. PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Virucci Indogriya Sarana.
Stock analysis
Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA) currently trades at 78.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 292.53 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 73.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,295 IDR per share, and 15 of the 17 models we run sit above the 78.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 45.46 IDR, and 2 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 205.98 IDR (bear) to 365.67 IDR (bull), the price of 78.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Gema Grahasarana Tbk reported revenue of 1.5T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was 21.2B IDR in FY2025, compounding +13.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 125B IDR (≈ $7.0M) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) 7.13 IDR · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 275%, GEMA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 205.98 IDRFair Value 292.53 IDRBull 365.67 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.39 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.6% vs −1.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 56% above its own trend.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 303 stocks
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Is Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 292.53 IDR versus a price of 78.00 IDR, about +275% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GEMA?
Our model-based fair value for Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 292.53 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 78.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of GEMA?
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 292.53 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 205.98 IDR, optimistic scenario 365.67 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gema Grahasarana Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 292.53 IDR, about +275% upside versus a price of 78.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 205.98 IDR, optimistic scenario 365.67 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Gema Grahasarana Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gema Grahasarana Tbk pay a dividend?
Gema Grahasarana Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gema Grahasarana Tbk it is 292.53 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 78.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gema Grahasarana Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GEMA trades below its calculated fair value: price 78.00 IDR, fair value 292.53 IDR, a gap of about +275% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEMA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (78.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (292.53 IDR). For Gema Grahasarana Tbk the two are 214.53 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gema Grahasarana Tbk worth?
The market values Gema Grahasarana Tbk at about 125B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 78.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 292.53 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEMA?
Our models span a range for Gema Grahasarana Tbk: cautious scenario 205.98 IDR, base 292.53 IDR, optimistic 365.67 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 78.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEMA?
Gema Grahasarana Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 292.53 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gema Grahasarana Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEMA from its 52-week high?
Gema Grahasarana Tbk trades at 78.00 IDR, about 31% below its 52-week high of 113.24 IDR and 5% above the low of 74.00 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 292.53 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gema Grahasarana Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, King Slide Works Co, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gema Grahasarana Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 78.00 IDR, calculated fair value 292.53 IDR (+275%), Quality Score 48/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEMA calculated?
We run Gema Grahasarana Tbk through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 292.53 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gema Grahasarana Tbk currently trades 73 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 78.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 292.53 IDR, about +275% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gema Grahasarana Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (205.98 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA) come from?
Earnings per share at Gema Grahasarana Tbk grew −3.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gema Grahasarana Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The market capitalisation of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 125B IDR (≈ $7.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 0.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Earnings per share at Gema Grahasarana Tbk are 7.13 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The dividend yield of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 3.8% (payout 41.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The net margin of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
The operating margin of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Revenue at Gema Grahasarana Tbk is growing −11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA)?
Earnings per share at Gema Grahasarana Tbk are growing +19.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA) generate?
The free cash flow of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is −8.4B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA) carry?
The net debt of Gema Grahasarana Tbk is 430B IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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