PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk IDR 6,585, price IDR 7,375, upside -10.7%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining business in Indonesia, China, India, the Philippines, South Korea, New Zealand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Hongkong, and Vietnam. The company operates in two segments, Coal Trading and Coal Mining.
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PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining business in Indonesia, China, India, the Philippines, South Korea, New Zealand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Hongkong, and Vietnam. The company operates in two segments, Coal Trading and Coal Mining. It offers management consultancy; mining; and venture capital services, as well as develops a mine-mouth power plant. The company was formerly known as PT Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti and changed its name to PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk in November 2010. PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk.
Stock analysis
PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) currently trades at 7,375 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6,585 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 12.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 10,684 IDR per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the 7,375 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,257 IDR, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4,002 IDR (bear) to 9,762 IDR (bull), the price of 7,375 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $255M in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 43.4T IDR (≈ $4.3B) · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) 702.21 IDR · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 29.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 54.6% · Operating margin 18.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −11%, GEMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4,002 IDRFair Value 6,585 IDRBull 9,762 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (513.67 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.0% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 37%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.6% a year for the price.
Compare PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEMS
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6,585 IDR versus a price of 7,375 IDR, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEMS?
Our model-based fair value for PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 6,585 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7,375 IDR.
What is the quality score of GEMS?
PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6,585 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4,002 IDR, optimistic scenario 9,762 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6,585 IDR, about −11% upside versus a price of 7,375 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4,002 IDR, optimistic scenario 9,762 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GEMS use?
Our models discount PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk that is +14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (+14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.18 %: that much free cash flow PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk it is 6,585 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 7,375 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GEMS trades above its calculated fair value: price 7,375 IDR, fair value 6,585 IDR, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7,375 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6,585 IDR). For PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk the two are 789.66 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk worth?
The market values PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk at about 43.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 7,375 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 6,585 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEMS?
Our models span a range for PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk: cautious scenario 4,002 IDR, base 6,585 IDR, optimistic 9,762 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 7,375 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEMS?
PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6,585 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.2, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 29.0%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEMS from its 52-week high?
PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk trades at 7,375 IDR, about 18% below its 52-week high of 8,982 IDR and 31% above the low of 5,650 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6,585 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 7,375 IDR, calculated fair value 6,585 IDR (−11%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEMS calculated?
We run PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6,585 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 7,375 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 6,585 IDR, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk right now?
A fairly wide model range (4,002 IDR to 9,762 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) come from?
Earnings per share at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk grew +43.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +24.0 %, EBIT margin +13.8 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The market capitalisation of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 43.4T IDR (≈ $4.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
Earnings per share at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk are 702.21 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The net margin of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 29.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 54.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
The operating margin of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
Revenue at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS)?
Earnings per share at PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk are growing −29.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS) carry?
The net debt of PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk is $22.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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