Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Greenfire Resources Ltd. $4.00, price $6.08, upside -34.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $3.94 – $10.79 · fair‑value band $2.97 – $5.08 · the $6.08 price screens above the $4.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Greenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta, Canada. The company's principal asset includes the Hangingstone Facilities which consist of the Expansion Asset and the Demo Asset located in south of Fort McMurray, Alberta.
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Greenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta, Canada. The company's principal asset includes the Hangingstone Facilities which consist of the Expansion Asset and the Demo Asset located in south of Fort McMurray, Alberta. Greenfire Resources Ltd. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) currently trades at $6.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.00, implying the stock looks roughly 52.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.24 per share, and 4 of the 22 models we run sit above the $6.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.15, and 18 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.97 (bear) to $5.08 (bull), the price of $6.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Greenfire Resources Ltd. reported revenue of C$603M in FY2025 versus C$271M in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$47.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity −4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% · Operating margin −61.2% · Revenue (TTM) C$551M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −34%, GFR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.97Fair Value $4.00Bull $5.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−30.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.1% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−61% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.85× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF42.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.00 versus a price of $6.08, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GFR?
Our model-based fair value for Greenfire Resources Ltd. is $4.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.08.
What is the quality score of GFR?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.97, optimistic scenario $5.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greenfire Resources Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.00, about −34% upside versus a price of $6.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.97, optimistic scenario $5.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$551M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greenfire Resources Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +21.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +22.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GFR use?
Our models discount Greenfire Resources Ltd. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greenfire Resources Ltd. that is +21.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Greenfire Resources Ltd. grew +22.2 % a year. The price currently implies +21.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greenfire Resources Ltd. (+21.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.90 %: that much free cash flow Greenfire Resources Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greenfire Resources Ltd. it is $4.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.08. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GFR trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.08, fair value $4.00, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.00). For Greenfire Resources Ltd. the two are $2.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greenfire Resources Ltd. worth?
The market values Greenfire Resources Ltd. at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.08; our models calculate a fair value of $4.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFR?
Our models span a range for Greenfire Resources Ltd.: cautious scenario $2.97, base $4.00, optimistic $5.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greenfire Resources Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.3%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFR from its 52-week high?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. trades at $6.08, about 14% below its 52-week high of $7.10 and 40% above the low of $4.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greenfire Resources Ltd.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.08, calculated fair value $4.00 (−34%), Quality Score 45/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFR calculated?
We run Greenfire Resources Ltd. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Greenfire Resources Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $6.08. Our model-based fair value is $4.00, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greenfire Resources Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Greenfire Resources Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The market capitalisation of Greenfire Resources Ltd. is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greenfire Resources Ltd. is 1.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Earnings per share at Greenfire Resources Ltd. are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The net margin of Greenfire Resources Ltd. is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greenfire Resources Ltd. is −4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greenfire Resources Ltd. is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
The operating margin of Greenfire Resources Ltd. is −61.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Revenue at Greenfire Resources Ltd. is growing −19.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)?
Earnings per share at Greenfire Resources Ltd. are growing +60.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) hold?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. holds more cash than debt, C$35.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026