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Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Golden Horse Minerals Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000360109

GH Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Golden Horse Minerals Ltd

GHM · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.1870 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.8400 A$0.2100 Fair Value A$0.1870 Dec 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

21‑month range A$0.2100 – A$0.8400 · fair‑value band A$0.1190 – A$0.2295 · the A$0.5300 price screens above the A$0.1870 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Golden Horse Minerals Limited operates as a gold exploration company that is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral projects in Western Australia. It primarily explores for gold, nickel, and lithium exploration. Its flagship project is the Hopes Hill project located in Perth, Western Australia.

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Golden Horse Minerals Limited operates as a gold exploration company that is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral projects in Western Australia. It primarily explores for gold, nickel, and lithium exploration. Its flagship project is the Hopes Hill project located in Perth, Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Altan Rio Minerals Limited and changed its name to Golden Horse Minerals Limited in July 2023. Golden Horse Minerals Limited is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM) currently trades at A$0.5300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1870, implying the stock looks roughly 183.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1190 (bear) to A$0.2295 (bull), the price of A$0.5300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Golden Horse Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$5.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$103M (≈ $73.6M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1400 · Return on equity −10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.7% · Revenue (TTM) A$44.0K · Free cash flow −A$2.8M · Net cash A$43.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −65%, GHM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1190 Fair Value A$0.1870 Bull A$0.2295
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2200 A$0.3000 A$0.4500 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2200 A$0.3000 A$0.4500 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GHM screens 183% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 250 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Below median
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.87× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $175.41 +37%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.26 ¥57.62 +79%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$278.09 C$313.75 +13%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $43.68 $60.62 +39%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $266.00 $292.60 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$213.75 C$112.10 −48%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.42 $88.63 −15%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$160.10 HK$147.86 −8%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $29.13 $51.02 +75%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.28 $277.51 +10%

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Golden Horse Minerals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1870 −183%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Golden Horse Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GHM.AU

Frequently asked questions

Is Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1870 versus a price of A$0.5300, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GHM?
Our model-based fair value for Golden Horse Minerals Ltd is A$0.1870 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5300.
What is the quality score of GHM?
Golden Horse Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1870 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1190, optimistic scenario A$0.2295. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Golden Horse Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1870, about −65% upside versus a price of A$0.5300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1190, optimistic scenario A$0.2295. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
Golden Horse Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$44.0K (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Golden Horse Minerals Ltd it is A$0.1870 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.5300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Golden Horse Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, GHM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.5300, fair value A$0.1870, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GHM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1870). For Golden Horse Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.3430 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Golden Horse Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Golden Horse Minerals Ltd at about A$103M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5300; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1870 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GHM?
Our models span a range for Golden Horse Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1190, base A$0.1870, optimistic A$0.2295 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$0.5300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −10.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GHM from its 52-week high?
Golden Horse Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.5300, about 42% below its 52-week high of A$0.9150 and 49% above the low of A$0.3550 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1870 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Golden Horse Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Golden Horse Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.5300, calculated fair value A$0.1870 (−65%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GHM calculated?
We run Golden Horse Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1870, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Golden Horse Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Golden Horse Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2295). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1190 to A$0.2295) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
The market capitalisation of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd is A$103M (≈ $73.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
Earnings per share at Golden Horse Minerals Ltd are A$−0.1400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd is −10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd is −14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM) generate?
The free cash flow of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd is −A$2.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Golden Horse Minerals Ltd (GHM) hold?
Golden Horse Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$43.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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