Grupo Gicsa S.A. (GICSAB) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · MX · Market cap 5.0B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 9.00 MXN to 8.25 MXN (−8.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −8.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 150% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (6.19 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.22 MXN – 3.76 MXN · fair‑value band 6.19 MXN – 10.78 MXN · the 3.30 MXN price screens below the 8.25 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Gicsa S.A. (GICSAB) currently trades at 3.30 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 8.25 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 150.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Gicsa S.A. generated revenue of 6.0B MXN at a net margin of 19.5%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at 22.1B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 6.19 MXN (bear case) to 10.78 MXN (bull case); at 3.30 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 150%, GICSAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (19.43 MXN) versus Dividend Discount (1.48 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the real estate and residential properties development activities in Mexico. It is involved in the investment, acquisition, construction, leasing, marketing, and sale of shopping centers, corporate offices, hotels, and mixed-use properties.
Full company description
Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the real estate and residential properties development activities in Mexico. It is involved in the investment, acquisition, construction, leasing, marketing, and sale of shopping centers, corporate offices, hotels, and mixed-use properties. The company also engages in the real estate properties administration, operation, and maintenance activities; and brokerage and stock holding services. Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Gicsa S.A. reported revenue of 6.0B MXN in FY2025 versus 3.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B MXN in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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