Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V MXN 6.00, price MXN 2.40, upside +150.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.22 MXN – 3.76 MXN · fair‑value band 4.82 MXN – 7.84 MXN · the 2.40 MXN price screens below the 6.00 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the real estate and residential properties development activities in Mexico. It is involved in the investment, acquisition, construction, leasing, marketing, and sale of shopping centers, corporate offices, hotels, and mixed-use properties.
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Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the real estate and residential properties development activities in Mexico. It is involved in the investment, acquisition, construction, leasing, marketing, and sale of shopping centers, corporate offices, hotels, and mixed-use properties. The company also engages in the real estate properties administration, operation, and maintenance activities; and brokerage and stock holding services. Grupo Gicsa S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB) currently trades at 2.40 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.00 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 26.41 MXN per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the 2.40 MXN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 13.20 MXN, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4.82 MXN (bear) to 7.84 MXN (bull), the price of 2.40 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V reported revenue of 6.0B MXN in FY2025 versus 3.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B MXN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.0B MXN · P/E ratio 2.5 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) 0.9700 MXN · Net margin 24.3% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 77.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 150%, GICSAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.82 MXNFair Value 6.00 MXNBull 7.84 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7122 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+72.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+72.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.61% → 76%
2025 sits 83% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+150% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)18% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)77% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GICSAB
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.00 MXN versus a price of 2.40 MXN, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GICSAB?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 6.00 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.40 MXN.
What is the quality score of GICSAB?
Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6.00 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.82 MXN, optimistic scenario 7.84 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6.00 MXN, about +150% upside versus a price of 2.40 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4.82 MXN, optimistic scenario 7.84 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.2B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V it is 6.00 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2.40 MXN. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GICSAB trades below its calculated fair value: price 2.40 MXN, fair value 6.00 MXN, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GICSAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.40 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6.00 MXN). For Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V the two are 3.60 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V at about 5.0B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2.40 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 6.00 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GICSAB?
Our models span a range for Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V: cautious scenario 4.82 MXN, base 6.00 MXN, optimistic 7.84 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2.40 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GICSAB?
Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6.00 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GICSAB from its 52-week high?
Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V trades at 2.40 MXN, about 36% below its 52-week high of 3.76 MXN and at the low of 2.40 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6.00 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2.40 MXN, calculated fair value 6.00 MXN (+150%), Quality Score 65/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GICSAB calculated?
We run Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6.00 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V currently trades 150 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 2.40 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 6.00 MXN, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (4.82 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 5.0B MXN. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V are 0.9700 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
The net margin of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 24.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
The operating margin of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 77.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Revenue at Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is growing −4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V are growing −28.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB) generate?
The free cash flow of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 3.1B MXN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V (GICSAB) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Gicsa S.A. de C.V is 22.1B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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