The St. Joe Company (JOE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $3.5B
The St. Joe Company
JOE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +13.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.16 – $72.44 · fair‑value band $25.68 – $42.80 · the $67.35 price screens above the $34.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
The St. Joe Company (JOE) currently trades at $67.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.24, implying the stock looks roughly 49.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The St. Joe Company generated revenue of $518M at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at $264M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.68 (bear case) to $42.80 (bull case); at $67.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -49%, JOE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($51.57) versus Dividend Discount ($8.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial.
Full company description
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential segment engages in the development of communities into homesites for sale to homebuilders and on a limited basis to retail customers. This segment primarily sells developed homesites, completed homes, parcels of entitled or undeveloped land or homesites, and a homesite residual on homebuilder, as well as offers marketing services. Its Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets. This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services. The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets. This segment also involved in the planning, development, entitlement, management, and sale of commercial and rural land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products, as well as operates real estate brokerage, title insurance agency and insurance agency business. The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The St. Joe Company reported revenue of $513M in FY2025 versus $267M in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $116M in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.
JOE screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The St. Joe Co (JOE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic Buybacks ...
- St. Joe Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- The St. Joe Company Reports Second Quarter and First Half 2026 Results and Declares a Quarterly Dividend of $0.16 Per Share
- The St. Joe (JOE) Positions to Benefit from Land Appreciation and Population Migration
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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