Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range 14.62 SAR – 26.70 SAR · fair‑value band 7.85 SAR – 29.98 SAR · the 17.02 SAR price screens above the 15.72 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company engages in real estate activities in Saudi Arabia. The company owns and develops the MASAR destination, an urban project in Makkah.
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Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company engages in real estate activities in Saudi Arabia. The company owns and develops the MASAR destination, an urban project in Makkah. It is also involved in the purchasing, selling, and dividing of lands and real estate; off-plan sales activities; and management and leasing of owned or leased non-residential properties. In addition, the company constructs residential and non-residential buildings, including schools, hospitals, and hotels; and roads, streets, sidewalks, road supplies, bridges, and tunnels. Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mecca, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325) currently trades at 17.02 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.72 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 8.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 17.88 SAR per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the 17.02 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.39 SAR, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 7.85 SAR (bear) to 29.98 SAR (bull), the price of 17.02 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC reported revenue of 3.0B SAR in FY2025 versus 3.0M SAR in FY2021, a compound +463.3%/yr. Reported net income was 983M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 23.9B SAR (≈ $6.4B) · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 9.08 · EPS (TTM) 0.6100 SAR · Net margin 32.5% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 121%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −8%, 4325 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 7.85 SARFair Value 15.72 SARBull 29.98 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4295 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+65.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+91.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+344.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+78.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+78.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9,085% → 36%
2025 sits 133% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 131 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)35% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)121% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−84% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4325
Frequently asked questions
Is Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.72 SAR versus a price of 17.02 SAR, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4325?
Our model-based fair value for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 15.72 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.02 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4325?
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.72 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.85 SAR, optimistic scenario 29.98 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.72 SAR, about −8% upside versus a price of 17.02 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 7.85 SAR, optimistic scenario 29.98 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +344.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4325 use?
Our models discount Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC that is +14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC grew +344.1 % a year. The price currently implies +14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (+14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.29 %: that much free cash flow Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC it is 15.72 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 17.02 SAR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4325 trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.02 SAR, fair value 15.72 SAR, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4325?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.02 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.72 SAR). For Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC the two are 1.30 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC worth?
The market values Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC at about 23.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 17.02 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 15.72 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4325?
Our models span a range for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC: cautious scenario 7.85 SAR, base 15.72 SAR, optimistic 29.98 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 17.02 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4325?
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.9 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15.72 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Balance-sheet figures for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4325 from its 52-week high?
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC trades at 17.02 SAR, about 32% below its 52-week high of 25.16 SAR and 17% above the low of 14.54 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.72 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 17.02 SAR, calculated fair value 15.72 SAR (−8%), Quality Score 67/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4325 calculated?
We run Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15.72 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (7.85 SAR to 29.98 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
The market capitalisation of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 23.9B SAR (≈ $6.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 9.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Earnings per share at Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC are 0.6100 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
The net margin of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 32.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
The operating margin of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 121% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Revenue at Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is growing −84.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +91.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325)?
Earnings per share at Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC are growing −74.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC (4325) carry?
The net debt of Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company SCJSC is 7.3B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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