Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GKP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GB · Market cap £380M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £1.57 to £1.53 (−2.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.8463 – £3.08 · the £1.80 price screens above the £1.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GKP) currently trades at £1.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.53, implying the stock looks roughly 14.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited generated revenue of £193M at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 37.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £76.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -15%, GKP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (£2.99) versus Economic Profit (£0.8700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited, together with its subsidiaries, explores, evaluates, develops, and produces oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company holds an 80% interest in the Shaikan Field, which covers an area of approximately 280 square kilometers located northwest of Erbil.
Full company description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited, together with its subsidiaries, explores, evaluates, develops, and produces oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company holds an 80% interest in the Shaikan Field, which covers an area of approximately 280 square kilometers located northwest of Erbil. It also provides management, support, geological, geophysical, and engineering services. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited reported revenue of £168M in FY2025 versus £301M in FY2021, a compound −13.6%/yr. Reported net income was £15.5M in FY2025, compounding −44.6%/yr from FY2021.
GKP screens 15% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 313 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $125.92 | $90.15 | -28% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $201.71 | $105.24 | -48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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