Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd £2.22, price £2.02, upside +9.8%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.8463 – £3.08 · fair‑value band £1.39 – £2.89 · the £2.02 price screens below the £2.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited, together with its subsidiaries, explores, evaluates, develops, and produces oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company holds an 80% interest in the Shaikan Field, which covers an area of approximately 280 square kilometers located northwest of Erbil.
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited, together with its subsidiaries, explores, evaluates, develops, and produces oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company holds an 80% interest in the Shaikan Field, which covers an area of approximately 280 square kilometers located northwest of Erbil. It also provides management, support, geological, geophysical, and engineering services. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP) currently trades at £2.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.22, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of £2.26 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the £2.02 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £0.6600, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.39 (bear) to £2.89 (bull), the price of £2.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd reported revenue of $168M in FY2025 versus $301M in FY2021, a compound −13.6%/yr. Reported net income was $15.5M in FY2025, compounding −44.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £458M · P/E ratio 38.6 · P/S ratio 3.55 · EPS (TTM) £0.0523 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, GKP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.39Fair Value £2.22Bull £2.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−31% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.0%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+33.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and +30.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.1% · Above median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)12.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.22 versus a price of £2.02, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GKP?
Our model-based fair value for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is £2.22 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.02.
What is the quality score of GKP?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.22 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.39, optimistic scenario £2.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.22, about +10% upside versus a price of £2.02 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £1.39, optimistic scenario £2.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd pay a dividend?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GKP use?
Our models discount Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.02 %: that much free cash flow Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd it is £2.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of £2.02. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GKP trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.02, fair value £2.22, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GKP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.22). For Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd the two are £0.1970 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd worth?
The market values Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd at about £458M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is £2.02; our models calculate a fair value of £2.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GKP?
Our models span a range for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd: cautious scenario £1.39, base £2.22, optimistic £2.89 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price £2.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GKP?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GKP from its 52-week high?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd trades at £2.02, about 13% below its 52-week high of £2.32 and 24% above the low of £1.63 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price £2.02, calculated fair value £2.22 (+10%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GKP calculated?
We run Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was £2.02. Our model-based fair value is £2.22, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (£1.39 to £2.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is £458M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is 3.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd are £0.0523 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The dividend yield of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is 3.8% (payout 147%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The net margin of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
The operating margin of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Revenue at Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is growing +37.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd are growing +224% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP) hold?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd holds more cash than debt, $76.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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