Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock $16.31, price $8.50, upside +91.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.80 – $16.98 · fair‑value band $9.02 – $23.61 · the $8.50 price screens below the $16.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation provides dredging services in the United States.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation provides dredging services in the United States. The company offers capital dredging that consists of port expansion projects; coastal restoration and land reclamations; trench digging for pipelines, tunnels, and cables; and other dredging related to the construction of breakwaters, jetties, canals, and other marine structures. It is also involved in coastal protection projects comprising moving sand from the ocean floor to shoreline locations where erosion threatens shoreline assets; maintenance dredging, which consists of the re-dredging of previously deepened waterways and harbors to remove silt, sand, and other accumulated sediments; and lake and river dredging, inland levee and construction dredging, environmental restoration and habitat improvement, and other marine construction projects. In addition, the company operates hydraulic dredges, hopper dredges, mechanical dredges, scows, and multi cats equipment. It serves federal, state, and local governments; foreign governments; and domestic and foreign private concerns comprising utilities, oil and gas, and other energy companies. The company was formerly known as Lydon & Drews Partnership and changed its name to Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation in 1905. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. As of April 1, 2026, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Saltchuk Resources, Inc. As of April 1, 2026, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Saltchuk Resources, Inc.
Stock analysis
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) currently trades at $8.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.31, implying the stock looks roughly 47.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $19.17 per share, and 18 of the 22 models we run sit above the $8.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.19, and 4 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.02 (bear) to $23.61 (bull), the price of $8.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock reported revenue of $888M in FY2025 versus $726M in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $73.5M in FY2025, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 15.7 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) $1.08 · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 92%, GLDD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.02Fair Value $16.31Bull $23.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 20%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 14%
2025 sits 106% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.1% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+92% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GLDD
Frequently asked questions
Is Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.31 versus a price of $8.50, about +92% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GLDD?
Our model-based fair value for Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is $16.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.50.
What is the quality score of GLDD?
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.02, optimistic scenario $23.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great Lakes Dredge & Dock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.31, about +92% upside versus a price of $8.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.02, optimistic scenario $23.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $888M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock would have to grow free cash flow by +1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GLDD use?
Our models discount Great Lakes Dredge & Dock at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Great Lakes Dredge & Dock that is +1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock grew +3.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (+1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.27 %: that much free cash flow Great Lakes Dredge & Dock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great Lakes Dredge & Dock it is $16.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.50. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Great Lakes Dredge & Dock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GLDD trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.50, fair value $16.31, a gap of about +92% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GLDD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.31). For Great Lakes Dredge & Dock the two are $7.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great Lakes Dredge & Dock worth?
The market values Great Lakes Dredge & Dock at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.50; our models calculate a fair value of $16.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GLDD?
Our models span a range for Great Lakes Dredge & Dock: cautious scenario $9.02, base $16.31, optimistic $23.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GLDD?
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
What is the PEG ratio of GLDD?
The PEG ratio of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.2%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GLDD from its 52-week high?
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock trades at $8.50, about 50% below its 52-week high of $16.98 and 24% above the low of $6.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Great Lakes Dredge & Dock?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great Lakes Dredge & Dock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.50, calculated fair value $16.31 (+92%), Quality Score 56/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GLDD calculated?
We run Great Lakes Dredge & Dock through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock currently trades 92 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.50. Our model-based fair value is $16.31, about +92% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great Lakes Dredge & Dock right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($9.02 to $23.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock
How large is the market capitalisation of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The market capitalisation of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is 1.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Earnings per share at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock are $1.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The net margin of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
The operating margin of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Revenue at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is growing +26.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)?
Earnings per share at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock are growing −37.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) carry?
The net debt of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is $445M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026