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Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Galan Lithium Ltd A$0.09, price A$0.38, upside -75.4%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000021461

GL Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Galan Lithium Ltd

GLN · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0935 · Strongly overvalued (−75%)
!Quality 23/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +161.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.23 A$0.0880 Fair Value A$0.0935 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0880 – A$2.23 · fair‑value band A$0.0680 – A$0.1360 · the A$0.3800 price screens above the A$0.0935 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Galan Lithium Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of lithium properties. Its flagship properties are the 100% owned Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project located in the Hombre Muerto basin Argentina; and the Candelas project that comprises 14 exploration permits covering an area of approximately 24,000 hectares situated in Argentina.

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Galan Lithium Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of lithium properties. Its flagship properties are the 100% owned Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project located in the Hombre Muerto basin Argentina; and the Candelas project that comprises 14 exploration permits covering an area of approximately 24,000 hectares situated in Argentina. Galan Lithium Limited was formerly known as Dempsey Minerals Limited and changed its name to Galan Lithium Limited in August 2018. Galan Lithium Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) currently trades at A$0.3800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0935, implying the stock looks roughly 306.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0680 (bear) to A$0.1360 (bull), the price of A$0.3800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Galan Lithium Ltd reported revenue of A$142K in FY2025 versus A$2.5K in FY2021, a compound +174.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$9.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$469M (≈ $330M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.8% · Operating margin −146,704% · Revenue growth (YoY) −74.0% · Free cash flow −A$4.2M · Net cash A$4.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 181% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −75%, GLN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0680 Fair Value A$0.0935 Bull A$0.1360
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1600 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1600 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+161.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−226,082.1% (2020) → −6,700.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GLN screens 306% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −74% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.59× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Galan Lithium Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0935 −306%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Galan Lithium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GLN

Frequently asked questions

Is Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0935 versus a price of A$0.3800, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GLN?
Our model-based fair value for Galan Lithium Ltd is A$0.0935 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3800.
What is the quality score of GLN?
Galan Lithium Ltd has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0935 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0680, optimistic scenario A$0.1360. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Galan Lithium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0935, about −75% upside versus a price of A$0.3800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0680, optimistic scenario A$0.1360. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Galan Lithium Ltd it is A$0.0935 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.3800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Galan Lithium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GLN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3800, fair value A$0.0935, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0935). For Galan Lithium Ltd the two are A$0.2865 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Galan Lithium Ltd worth?
The market values Galan Lithium Ltd at about A$469M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0935 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GLN?
Our models span a range for Galan Lithium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0680, base A$0.0935, optimistic A$0.1360 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.3800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Galan Lithium Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −4.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GLN from its 52-week high?
Galan Lithium Ltd trades at A$0.3800, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$0.5450 and 181% above the low of A$0.1350 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0935 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Galan Lithium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Galan Lithium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.3800, calculated fair value A$0.0935 (−75%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GLN calculated?
We run Galan Lithium Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0935, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Galan Lithium Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.3800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0935, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Galan Lithium Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1360). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0680 to A$0.1360) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Galan Lithium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
The market capitalisation of Galan Lithium Ltd is A$469M (≈ $330M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
Earnings per share at Galan Lithium Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Galan Lithium Ltd is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Galan Lithium Ltd is −5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
The operating margin of Galan Lithium Ltd is −146,704% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN)?
Revenue at Galan Lithium Ltd is growing −74.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) generate?
The free cash flow of Galan Lithium Ltd is −A$4.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) hold?
Galan Lithium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$4.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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