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Glencore PLC ADR (GLNCY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $87.7B · ISIN US37827X1000

What is Glencore PLC ADR really worth?

GP Glencore PLC ADR logo Glencore PLC ADR GLNCY · US
Price$16.25
Fair Value$2.30
Upside−85.9% ⚠
Quality55/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 607% above our fair value of $2.30.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Glencore PLC ADR is $2.30 per share against a price of $16.25, so the fair value sits 86% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.8% net margin
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 21 out of 100

For context

·1.05% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range $1.58 – $3.00

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from $1.15 to $2.30 (+100.0%) since Aug 29, 2026. Share price +5.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($1.58 to $3.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$16.61 $5.62 Fair Value $2.30 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.62 – $16.61 · fair‑value band $1.58 – $3.00 · the $16.25 price screens above the $2.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Glencore PLC ADR (GLNCY) currently trades at $16.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.30, implying the stock looks roughly 606.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.44 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $16.25 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3200, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Glencore PLC ADR generated revenue of $248B at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at $39.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.58 (bear case) to $3.00 (bull case); at $16.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −86%, GLNCY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.4980 per share, which is 21.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.3200 to $13.79). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $4.55 $4.29 $3.12 76
Owner Earnings — $1.54 $4.19 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.91 $10.13 $17.33 71
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings — $1.54 $4.19 73
5Y Revenue Exit — $1.27 $4.12 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.91 $10.13 $17.33 71
10Y Revenue Exit — — $2.39 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.29 $6.00 $12.24 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.4200 $1.15 $1.50 65
Lynch FV $0.2300 $0.3200 $0.4200 61
PEG = 1.0 $0.2300 $0.3200 $0.4200 57
EPV $0.2500 $0.9400 $1.54 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.88 $3.90 $6.19 66
DDM Multi-Stage $1.88 $2.93 $4.05 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.7900 $1.06 $1.32 63
P/S Multiple $0.7900 $1.06 $1.32 58
P/B Multiple $0.7900 $1.06 $1.32 55
EV/EBIT $1.18 $2.87 $4.56 61
EV/EBITDA $9.37 $13.79 $18.21 66
EV/Revenue $0.5000 $2.39 $4.27 48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.32 $4.44 $6.63 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $4.55 $4.29 $3.12 76
ROIC Compounder $0.2500 $0.9400 $1.54 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.6400 $0.9100 $1.19 67

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($4.44) versus Earnings-Based ($0.3200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 263.0 as of Jun 15, 2026
P/S ratio 0.39 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.9000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 263.0
Dividend yield 1.0% payout 18.9%
Net margin 0.1% FY2025
Return on equity 16.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 2.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $305B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +48.6% 3y avg −0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −60.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $389M FY2025
Net debt $39.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities.

Full company description

Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. It engages in the production and marketing of copper, cobalt, lead, nickel, zinc, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, aluminum, alumina, and iron ore; and coal, crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, as well as oil exploration and production and refining and distribution. The company is also involved in marketing and distributing physical commodities sourced from third party producers to industrial consumers, including the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. In addition, the company provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Glencore PLC ADR reported revenue of $249B in FY2025 versus $204B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $365M in FY2025, compounding −48.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$249B
Latest YoY
+7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−38.5% · in USD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−39.5%
Dividend yield1.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −39.5% vs 10Y −13.9%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.4% (2020) → 1.1% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop230% (2013) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +5.1%/yr
FY21 $204B
FY22 $256B
FY23 $218B
FY24 $231B
FY25 $249B
Net income −48.0%/yr
FY21 $5.0B
FY22 $17.3B
FY23 $4.3B
FY24 −$1.6B
FY25 $365M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.8 %

of which total revenue +2.5 % · buybacks/dilution +1.3 %

EBIT margin +1.2 %
Tax rate +1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GLNCY screens 607% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Glencore PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GLNCY

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −86% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Revenue growth 49% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.66× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 263.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 225.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Glencore PLC ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+43.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price0.40 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth. Not a sell signal, but an expectation the company still has to earn. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 38
PAST64 · sector 0
HEALTH67 · sector 96
DIVIDEND21 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP A$66.84 A$42.16 −37%
Vale S.A VALE $15.31 $8.95 −42%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR −48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.42 ¥16.15 −12%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $69.34 $32.02 −54%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 −11%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥66.76 ¥9.55 −86%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 −74%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.85 ¥25.99 −31%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Glencore PLC ADR (GLNCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.30 versus a price of $16.25, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GLNCY?
Our model-based fair value for Glencore PLC ADR is $2.30 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.25.
What is the quality score of GLNCY?
Glencore PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Glencore PLC ADR (GLNCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.30 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $3.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Glencore PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.30, about −86% upside versus a price of $16.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $3.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Glencore PLC ADR (GLNCY)?
Glencore PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $248B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GLNCY?
The net profit margin of Glencore PLC ADR is about 0.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Glencore PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Glencore PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Glencore PLC ADR (GLNCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Glencore PLC ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +43.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GLNCY use?
Our models discount Glencore PLC ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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