Global Partners LP (GLP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Global Partners LP $32.65, price $48.18, upside -32.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.17 – $55.23 · fair‑value band $24.09 – $42.02 · the $48.18 price screens above the $32.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Global Partners LP engages in the purchasing, selling, gathering, blending, storing, and logistics of transporting gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, and propane to wholesalers, retailers, and commercial customers.
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Global Partners LP engages in the purchasing, selling, gathering, blending, storing, and logistics of transporting gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, and propane to wholesalers, retailers, and commercial customers. The company operates through three segments: Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations (GDSO), and Commercial. The Wholesale segment sells home heating oil, branded and unbranded gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, diesel, kerosene, and residual oil to retailers and wholesale distributors. This segment transports the products by railcars, barges, trucks and/or pipelines. The GDSO segment sells branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers; operates convenience stores and prepared food sales; and provides car wash, lottery, and ATM services, as well as leases gasoline stations. The Commercial segment sells and delivers unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, and bunker fuel to customers in the public sector; and sells custom blended fuels. The company is involved in the transportation of petroleum products and renewable fuels through rail from the mid-continent region of the United States and Canada. Global Partners LP was founded in 2005 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Global Partners LP (GLP) currently trades at $48.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.65, implying the stock looks roughly 47.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $61.07 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the $48.18 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.15, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.09 (bear) to $42.02 (bull), the price of $48.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Global Partners LP reported revenue of $18.6B in FY2025 versus $13.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $79.2M in FY2025, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $3.60 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −32%, GLP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.09Fair Value $32.65Bull $42.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4170 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.14× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF8.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG6.18× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)80· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)85· sector 45
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 51
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Global Partners LP (GLP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.65 versus a price of $48.18, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GLP?
Our model-based fair value for Global Partners LP is $32.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.18.
What is the quality score of GLP?
Global Partners LP has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.09, optimistic scenario $42.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Global Partners LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.65, about −32% upside versus a price of $48.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.09, optimistic scenario $42.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Global Partners LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Global Partners LP pay a dividend?
Global Partners LP currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Global Partners LP (GLP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Global Partners LP would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GLP use?
Our models discount Global Partners LP at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Global Partners LP that is +9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Global Partners LP (GLP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Global Partners LP grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Global Partners LP (GLP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Global Partners LP (+9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.73 %: that much free cash flow Global Partners LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Global Partners LP it is $32.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $48.18. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Global Partners LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GLP trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.18, fair value $32.65, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GLP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.65). For Global Partners LP the two are $15.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Global Partners LP worth?
The market values Global Partners LP at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $48.18; our models calculate a fair value of $32.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GLP?
Our models span a range for Global Partners LP: cautious scenario $24.09, base $32.65, optimistic $42.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $48.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GLP?
Global Partners LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.2, P/B 2.5, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GLP?
The PEG ratio of Global Partners LP is 6.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Global Partners LP (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 21.2%, debt of 2.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GLP from its 52-week high?
Global Partners LP trades at $48.18, about 11% below its 52-week high of $54.07 and 26% above the low of $38.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Global Partners LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Global Partners LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $48.18, calculated fair value $32.65 (−32%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GLP calculated?
We run Global Partners LP through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Global Partners LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $48.18. Our model-based fair value is $32.65, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Global Partners LP right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Global Partners LP (GLP) come from?
Earnings per share at Global Partners LP grew +2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Global Partners LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The market capitalisation of Global Partners LP is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Global Partners LP is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Earnings per share at Global Partners LP are $3.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The dividend yield of Global Partners LP is 6.3% (payout 84.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The net margin of Global Partners LP is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Global Partners LP is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Global Partners LP is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Global Partners LP (GLP)?
The operating margin of Global Partners LP is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Revenue at Global Partners LP is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Global Partners LP (GLP)?
Earnings per share at Global Partners LP are growing +414% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Global Partners LP (GLP) carry?
The net debt of Global Partners LP is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026