GM Leather S.p.A. (GML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GM Leather S.p.A. stock €0.46, price €0.57, that is 18.6% below the price, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range €0.4600 – €1.82 · fair‑value band €0.3400 – €0.5500 · the €0.5650 price screens above the €0.4600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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G.M. Leather S.p.A. engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of semi-finished and finished leathers in Italy and internationally. It offers its products for footwear, furniture, leather goods, and fashion sectors. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Arzignano, Italy.
Stock analysis
GM Leather S.p.A. (GML) currently trades at €0.5650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.4600, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €0.5400 per share, and 5 of the 19 models we run sit above the €0.5650 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.0950, and 14 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €0.3400 (bear) to €0.5500 (bull), the price of €0.5650 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
GM Leather S.p.A. reported revenue of €40.4M in FY2025 versus €49.7M in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was €18.2K in FY2025, compounding −70.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €9.5M Micro · P/E ratio 28.3 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) €0.0200 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −39.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −21.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −19%, GML screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€0.3400Fair Value €0.4600Bull€0.5500
Price €0.5650 · Downside -18.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0172 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−61.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−61.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−18.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−22.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−21.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−13.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
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Is GM Leather S.p.A. (GML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.4600 versus a price of €0.5650, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GML?
Our model-based fair value for GM Leather S.p.A. is €0.4600 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €0.5650.
What is the quality score of GML?
GM Leather S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.4600 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.3400, optimistic scenario €0.5500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GM Leather S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.4600, about 19% lower versus a price of €0.5650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.3400, optimistic scenario €0.5500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
GM Leather S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €39.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GM Leather S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +52.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GML use?
Our models discount GM Leather S.p.A. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GM Leather S.p.A. that is +52.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GM Leather S.p.A. (GML) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GM Leather S.p.A. grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +52.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GM Leather S.p.A. (+52.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.97 %: that much free cash flow GM Leather S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GM Leather S.p.A. it is €0.4600 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €0.5650. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is GM Leather S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GML trades above its calculated fair value: price €0.5650, fair value €0.4600, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.5650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.4600). For GM Leather S.p.A. the two are €0.1050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GM Leather S.p.A. worth?
The market values GM Leather S.p.A. at about €9.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €0.5650; our models calculate a fair value of €0.4600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GML?
Our models span a range for GM Leather S.p.A.: cautious scenario €0.3400, base €0.4600, optimistic €0.5500 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €0.5650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GML?
GM Leather S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.4600 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
Balance-sheet figures for GM Leather S.p.A. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −39.7%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GML from its 52-week high?
GM Leather S.p.A. trades at €0.5650, about 38% below its 52-week high of €0.9050 and 23% above the low of €0.4600 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.4600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GM Leather S.p.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tongkun Group, Shenzhou International Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, Far Eastern New Century Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GM Leather S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €0.5650, calculated fair value €0.4600 (−19%), Quality Score 31/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GML calculated?
We run GM Leather S.p.A. through 21 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €0.4600 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. GM Leather S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €0.5650. Our model-based fair value is €0.4600, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GM Leather S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.5500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of GM Leather S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The market capitalisation of GM Leather S.p.A. is €9.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GM Leather S.p.A. is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
Earnings per share at GM Leather S.p.A. are €0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The net margin of GM Leather S.p.A. is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GM Leather S.p.A. is −39.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GM Leather S.p.A. is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
The operating margin of GM Leather S.p.A. is −21.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
Revenue at GM Leather S.p.A. is growing −13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GM Leather S.p.A. (GML)?
Earnings per share at GM Leather S.p.A. are growing −92.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GM Leather S.p.A. (GML) carry?
The net debt of GM Leather S.p.A. is €25.5M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026