Gateway Mining Limited (GML) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$111M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +53.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0294). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0150 – A$0.2500 · fair‑value band A$0.0253 – A$0.0294 · the A$0.0750 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Gateway Mining Limited (GML) currently trades at A$0.0750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 66.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
It earns a return on equity of -3.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$3.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0253 (bear case) to A$0.0294 (bull case); at A$0.0750, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 200% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -66%, GML screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$0.0500) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gateway Mining Limited acquires, explores, and develops mineral resource properties in Western Australia. The company explores for gold and base metal deposits.
Full company description
Gateway Mining Limited acquires, explores, and develops mineral resource properties in Western Australia. The company explores for gold and base metal deposits. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Yandal gold project, which covers an area of 1,780 square kilometers located in the eastern flank of the Yandal Greenstone Belt in the northeastern Yilgarn of Western Australia. Gateway Mining Limited was incorporated in 1957 and is based in Mount Pleasant, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gateway Mining Limited reported revenue of A$156K in FY2025 versus A$50.0K in FY2021, a compound +32.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.4M in FY2025.
GML screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
Compare Gateway Mining Limited with another stock
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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