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Gateway Mining Ltd (GML) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gateway Mining Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.07, upside -70.0%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000GML2

GM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Gateway Mining Ltd

GML · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0219 · Strongly overvalued (−70%)
!Quality 32/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/4)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.2000 A$0.0150 Fair Value A$0.0219 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0150 – A$0.2000 · fair‑value band A$0.0219 – A$0.0283 · the A$0.0730 price screens above the A$0.0219 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Gateway Mining Limited acquires, explores, and develops mineral resource properties in Western Australia. The company explores for gold and base metal deposits.

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Gateway Mining Limited acquires, explores, and develops mineral resource properties in Western Australia. The company explores for gold and base metal deposits. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Yandal gold project, which covers an area of 1,780 square kilometers located in the eastern flank of the Yandal Greenstone Belt in the northeastern Yilgarn of Western Australia. Gateway Mining Limited was incorporated in 1957 and is based in Mount Pleasant, Australia.

Stock analysis

Gateway Mining Ltd (GML) currently trades at A$0.0730, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0219, implying the stock looks roughly 233.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.0500 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.0730 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$0.0219 (bear) to A$0.0283 (bull), the price of A$0.0730 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Gateway Mining Ltd reported revenue of A$156K in FY2025 versus A$50.0K in FY2021, a compound +32.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$186M (≈ $130M) · Return on equity −3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.6% · Operating margin −6,719% · Revenue (TTM) −A$4.0M · Free cash flow −A$2.7M · Net cash A$3.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −70%, GML screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0219 Fair Value A$0.0219 Bull A$0.0283
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 70
Residual Income A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 68
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.0300 A$0.0500 A$0.0600 65
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.0100 A$0.0500 A$0.0700 61
Lynch FV A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0500 60
PEG = 1.0 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0500 56
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 63
P/B Multiple A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.0300 A$0.0500 A$0.0600 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 6
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +37.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,313.4% (2020) → −716.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

GML screens 233% overvalued. Compare with Zijin Mining Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/3 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Below median
Fair Value upside −71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Below median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥31.41 ¥43.81 +39%
Newmont Corporation NEM A$177.02 A$265.78 +50%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $195.57 $222.49 +14%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $42.49 $65.40 +54%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $260.91 $287.00 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $145.45 $89.12 −39%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.60 $88.63 −15%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$146.60 HK$83.20 −43%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $27.62 $51.30 +86%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.78 $278.06 +10%

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A$0.0219 −233%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gateway Mining Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GML

Frequently asked questions

Is Gateway Mining Ltd (GML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0219 versus a price of A$0.0730, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GML?
Our model-based fair value for Gateway Mining Ltd is A$0.0219 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0730.
What is the quality score of GML?
Gateway Mining Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0219 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0219, optimistic scenario A$0.0283. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gateway Mining Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0219, about −70% upside versus a price of A$0.0730 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0219, optimistic scenario A$0.0283. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gateway Mining Ltd it is A$0.0219 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0730. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gateway Mining Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GML trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0730, fair value A$0.0219, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0730); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0219). For Gateway Mining Ltd the two are A$0.0511 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gateway Mining Ltd worth?
The market values Gateway Mining Ltd at about A$186M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0730; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0219 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GML?
Our models span a range for Gateway Mining Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0219, base A$0.0219, optimistic A$0.0283 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0730). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gateway Mining Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −3.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GML from its 52-week high?
Gateway Mining Ltd trades at A$0.0730, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$0.1050 and 70% above the low of A$0.0430 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0219 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gateway Mining Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gateway Mining Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0730, calculated fair value A$0.0219 (−70%), Quality Score 32/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GML calculated?
We run Gateway Mining Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0219, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gateway Mining Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0730. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0219, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gateway Mining Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0283). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Gateway Mining Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
The market capitalisation of Gateway Mining Ltd is A$186M (≈ $130M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gateway Mining Ltd is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gateway Mining Ltd is −4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gateway Mining Ltd (GML)?
The operating margin of Gateway Mining Ltd is −6,719% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Gateway Mining Ltd (GML) generate?
Gateway Mining Ltd generates revenue of −A$4.0M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How much free cash flow does Gateway Mining Ltd (GML) generate?
The free cash flow of Gateway Mining Ltd is −A$2.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Gateway Mining Ltd (GML) hold?
Gateway Mining Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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