Gemfields Group Ltd (GML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gemfields Group Ltd stock ZAR 1.13, price ZAR 0.83, upside +36.1%, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R0.5700 – R3.68 · fair‑value band R0.8445 – R1.69 · the R0.8300 price screens below the R1.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Gemfields Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mining company. It operates through Kagem Mining Limited, Montepuez Ruby Mining Limitada, Development Assets, Fabergé, Corporate, and Other segments.
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The company explores for emerald, beryl, ruby, corundum, gold, and allied minerals in Zambia, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. It also engages in the sale of cut and polished gemstones and jewellery; and provision of marketing, and technical and administrative services.
The company was formerly known as Pallinghurst Resources Limited and changed its name to Gemfields Group Limited in June 2018. Gemfields Group Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Gemfields Group Ltd (GML) currently trades at R0.8300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R1.13, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 4 models at a data quality of 84/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: R0.8445 (bear) to R1.69 (bull), the price of R0.8300 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Gemfields Group Ltd reported revenue of $145M in FY2025 versus $258M in FY2021, a compound −13.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$40.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.4B ZAR Micro · P/S ratio 8.42 · EPS (TTM) R−0.8900 · Dividend yield 14.6% · Net margin −28.1% · Return on equity −11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin −60.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 36%, GML screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR0.8445Fair Value R1.13BullR1.69
Price R0.8300 · Upside +36.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−31.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.8%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−278.6% (2020) → −21.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 96 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Below median
Fair Value upside+36.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−28.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−60.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)14.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gemfields Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GML.JSE
Frequently asked questions
Is Gemfields Group Ltd (GML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R1.13 versus a price of R0.8300, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GML?
Our model-based fair value for Gemfields Group Ltd is R1.13 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R0.8300.
What is the quality score of GML?
Gemfields Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R1.13 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario R0.8445, optimistic scenario R1.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gemfields Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R1.13, about +36% upside versus a price of R0.8300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R0.8445, optimistic scenario R1.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Gemfields Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $135M (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Gemfields Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Gemfields Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 14.62% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gemfields Group Ltd it is R1.13 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of R0.8300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gemfields Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, GML trades below its calculated fair value: price R0.8300, fair value R1.13, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R0.8300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R1.13). For Gemfields Group Ltd the two are R0.3000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gemfields Group Ltd worth?
The market values Gemfields Group Ltd at about 1.4B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is R0.8300; our models calculate a fair value of R1.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GML?
Our models span a range for Gemfields Group Ltd: cautious scenario R0.8445, base R1.13, optimistic R1.69 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price R0.8300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gemfields Group Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −11.9%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GML from its 52-week high?
Gemfields Group Ltd trades at R0.8300, about 39% below its 52-week high of R1.35 and 46% above the low of R0.5700 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R1.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gemfields Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, China Gold International Resources Corp, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gemfields Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price R0.8300, calculated fair value R1.13 (+36%), Quality Score 30/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GML calculated?
We run Gemfields Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R1.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Gemfields Group Ltd currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was R0.8300. Our model-based fair value is R1.13, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gemfields Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R0.8445 to R1.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gemfields Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The market capitalisation of Gemfields Group Ltd is 1.4B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gemfields Group Ltd is 8.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Earnings per share at Gemfields Group Ltd are R−0.8900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The dividend yield of Gemfields Group Ltd is 14.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The net margin of Gemfields Group Ltd is −28.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gemfields Group Ltd is −11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gemfields Group Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
The operating margin of Gemfields Group Ltd is −60.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Revenue at Gemfields Group Ltd is growing −9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gemfields Group Ltd (GML)?
Earnings per share at Gemfields Group Ltd are growing −25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gemfields Group Ltd (GML) generate?
The free cash flow of Gemfields Group Ltd is −$23.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gemfields Group Ltd (GML) carry?
The net debt of Gemfields Group Ltd is $12.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 26, 2026