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Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Utilities · US · ISIN MX01GM080002

Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.

GMXDF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $0.2937 · Fairly valued (−2%)

!Quality 53/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 6.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!Moderate moat 45/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $0.2147 to bull $0.3921 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 53/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0172 – $0.8300 · fair‑value band $0.2147 – $0.3921 · the $0.3000 price screens above the $0.2937 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.B. develops and operates infrastructure projects in Mexico.

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.B. develops and operates infrastructure projects in Mexico. The company develops and operates port, maritime, and inland terminals; hydraulic infrastructure systems for potable water supply and wastewater treatment; maintenance and operation of highways and roads; and tourist destinations, including marinas, residential developments, and hotels. It also produces metallic structure and precast concrete; and offers engineering and construction services in various industries. In addition, the company involved in the operation of energy sector projects, including renewable power generation and hydrocarbon storage tanks activities. Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.B. was founded in 1942 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Stock analysis

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF) currently trades at $0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2937, implying the stock looks roughly 2.1% fairly valued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.3139 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.3000 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.0719, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.2147 (bear) to $0.3921 (bull), the price of $0.3000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. reported revenue of 5.5B MXN in FY2025 versus 4.0B MXN in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was 287M MXN in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $54.7M · P/E ratio 2.5 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9% · Operating margin 19.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −2%, GMXDF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2147 Fair Value $0.2937 Bull $0.3921

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0845 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $0.2423 $0.3139 $0.4034 82

Growth DCF $0.2425 $0.3042 $0.3767 80

Owner Earnings $0.1267 $0.1532 $0.1862 78

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $0.2423 $0.3139 $0.4034 82

Owner Earnings $0.1267 $0.1532 $0.1862 78

5Y Revenue Exit $0.3122 $0.4719 $0.6761 72

5Y EBITDA Exit $0.3344 $0.5133 $0.7218 75

5Y P/E Exit $0.2118 $0.2843 $0.3588 72

10Y Revenue Exit $0.2708 $0.3945 $0.5607 67

10Y EBITDA Exit $0.2901 $0.4191 $0.5904 68

10Y P/E Exit $0.2233 $0.2832 $0.3539 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $0.0737 $0.2307 $0.3071 64

Lynch FV $0.0503 $0.0719 $0.0935 61

PEG = 1.0 $0.0503 $0.0719 $0.0935 57

EPV $0.2556 $0.2792 $0.2983 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple $0.1464 $0.1952 $0.2440 63

P/S Multiple $0.1382 $0.1844 $0.2304 58

P/B Multiple $0.1382 $0.1844 $0.2304 55

EV/EBIT $0.4615 $0.5955 $0.7296 66

EV/EBITDA $0.4525 $0.5835 $0.7146 67

EV/Revenue $0.3846 $0.5241 $0.6635 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.1188 $0.1592 $0.2375 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $0.2425 $0.3042 $0.3767 80

Rev-Margin DCF $0.3122 $0.4710 $0.6530 73

Economic Profit

Residual Income $0.1614 $0.1552 $0.1263 71

ROIC Compounder $0.2589 $0.2937 $0.3317 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $0.1234 $0.1763 $0.2293 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 27

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 41

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 64

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 46

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 61

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 67

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 30

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+11.2%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.8%

Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

+0.2%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 17%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 63 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 53 · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median

Return on assets 5% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 7% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.05× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.5× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.15× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheapest 25%

P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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American Water Works Company AWK	$137.69	$65.80	−52%
SBS SBS	$5.29	$8.22	+55%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG	$41.07	$23.28	−43%
Guangdong Investment Limited 0270	HK$8.55	HK$12.82	+50%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323	¥29.54	¥49.96	+69%
American States Water Company AWR	$86.48	$38.40	−56%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598	¥7.08	¥9.09	+28%
California Water Service Group CWT	$48.22	$25.75	−47%
Chongqing Water Group 601158	¥4.10	¥1.76	−57%
H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO	$62.66	$29.35	−53%

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Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. · Fair Value
$0.2937 −2%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GMXDF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$0.2937</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−2%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GMXDF

Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2937 versus a price of $0.3000, about −2% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of GMXDF?

Our model-based fair value for Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is $0.2937 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3000.

What is the quality score of GMXDF?

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2937 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2147, optimistic scenario $0.3921. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $0.2937, about −2% upside versus a price of $0.3000 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.2147, optimistic scenario $0.3921. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.9B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. it is $0.2937 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.3000. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 13, 2026, GMXDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.3000, fair value $0.2937, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of GMXDF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2937). For Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. the two are $0.0063 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. worth?

The market values Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. at about $54.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.3000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2937 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GMXDF?

Our models span a range for Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.: cautious scenario $0.2147, base $0.2937, optimistic $0.3921 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.3000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of GMXDF?

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.2937 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.2.

How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is GMXDF from its 52-week high?

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. trades at $0.3000, about 39% below its 52-week high of $0.4900 and 1,644% above the low of $0.0172 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2937 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.?

From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, SBS, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.3000, calculated fair value $0.2937 (−2%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of GMXDF calculated?

We run Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2937, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What should I pay attention to with Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($0.2147 to $0.3921) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

The market capitalisation of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is $54.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Earnings per share at Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

The net margin of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

The operating margin of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Revenue at Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is growing +39.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF)?

Earnings per share at Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. are growing +113% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF) generate?

The free cash flow of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 583M MXN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. (GMXDF) carry?

The net debt of Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A. is 698M MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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