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GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of GR Engineering Services Ltd A$3.82, price A$7.70, upside -50.4%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000GNG0

GE Broad data Sep 23, 2026

GR Engineering Services Ltd

GNG · AU

Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.

!Fair value A$3.82 · Strongly overvalued (−50%)
✓Quality 78/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue YoY +13.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.12% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 63/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$7.70 A$0.9400 Fair Value A$3.82 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.9400 – A$7.70 · fair‑value band A$2.68 – A$5.65 · the A$7.70 price screens above the A$3.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

GR Engineering Services Limited provides engineering, process control, automation, and construction services to the mining and mineral processing industries in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Mineral Processing and Oil & Gas segments.

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GR Engineering Services Limited provides engineering, process control, automation, and construction services to the mining and mineral processing industries in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Mineral Processing and Oil & Gas segments. It also offers feasibility studies, such as scoping, pre-feasibility, and definitive level studies, as well as study work and services that include front end engineering design, operations and process optimization, due diligence reviews, asset management system development and monitoring, risk evaluation and hazard/operability studies, technology evaluation and trade-off studies, and refurbishment assessments. In addition, the company provides design and construction of minerals processing facilities and related infrastructure for green fields or brownfield projects, including plant modifications, and upgrades, and expansions; plant evaluation and condition reports; plant operations, and maintenance support and optimization; and plant relocation, refurbishment, and recommissioning, as well as offers owners representatives and teams for project management and delivery. Further, it provides project management services comprising project studies, engineering and procurement, construction and commissioning, operations and technical support, and infrastructure development services. Additionally, the company offers design and construction services comprising of civil, structural, mechanical, piping, electrical, instrumentation/control design, site structural, electrical construction, and installation works; and consulting services. GR Engineering Services Limited was founded in 1986 and is based in Ascot, Australia.

Stock analysis

GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) currently trades at A$7.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.82, implying the stock looks roughly 101.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$4.57 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$7.70 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.22, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: A$2.68 (bear) to A$5.65 (bull), the price of A$7.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

GR Engineering Services Ltd reported revenue of A$479M in FY2025 versus A$392M in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$34.2M in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap A$1.3B (≈ $934M) · P/E ratio 45.3 · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1700 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 41.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, GNG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$2.68 Fair Value A$3.82 Bull A$5.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF A$2.79 A$4.66 A$7.70 76
Growth DCF A$2.73 A$4.31 A$6.69 75
EPV A$1.82 A$2.01 A$2.18 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$2.79 A$4.66 A$7.70 76
Owner Earnings A$3.05 A$5.12 A$8.48 72
5Y Revenue Exit A$2.86 A$4.90 A$7.74 69
5Y EBITDA Exit A$2.69 A$4.54 A$6.91 72
5Y P/E Exit A$2.76 A$4.69 A$6.96 68
10Y Revenue Exit A$2.72 A$4.57 A$7.55 63
10Y EBITDA Exit A$2.69 A$4.32 A$6.89 65
10Y P/E Exit A$2.74 A$4.43 A$6.93 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$1.37 A$7.28 A$10.08 61
Lynch FV A$2.01 A$2.87 A$3.73 59
PEG = 1.0 A$2.01 A$2.87 A$3.73 55
EPV A$1.82 A$2.01 A$2.18 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$1.53 A$2.75 A$3.78 66
DDM Multi-Stage A$1.53 A$2.51 A$2.94 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$2.56 A$3.42 A$4.27 63
P/S Multiple A$2.56 A$3.42 A$4.27 58
P/B Multiple A$0.9100 A$1.21 A$1.52 55
EV/EBIT A$3.31 A$4.29 A$5.26 66
EV/EBITDA A$2.82 A$3.63 A$4.45 67
EV/Revenue A$2.92 A$4.01 A$5.10 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2000 A$0.2700 A$0.4000 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$2.73 A$4.31 A$6.69 75
Rev-Margin DCF A$2.86 A$4.83 A$7.48 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.01 A$1.22 A$4.56 61
ROIC Compounder A$1.83 A$2.04 A$2.23 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$2.68 A$3.82 A$4.97 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 89

Profitability 87
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the price.

GNG screens 102% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −50% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 41% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −20% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 13.56× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 26.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 18.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)62 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥36.66 ¥54.86 +50%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GR Engineering Services Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNG

Frequently asked questions

Is GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.82 versus a price of A$7.70, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNG?
Our model-based fair value for GR Engineering Services Ltd is A$3.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$7.70.
What is the quality score of GNG?
GR Engineering Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.68, optimistic scenario A$5.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GR Engineering Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.82, about −50% upside versus a price of A$7.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.68, optimistic scenario A$5.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
GR Engineering Services Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$425M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does GR Engineering Services Ltd pay a dividend?
GR Engineering Services Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GR Engineering Services Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNG use?
Our models discount GR Engineering Services Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GR Engineering Services Ltd that is +20.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GR Engineering Services Ltd grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies +20.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GR Engineering Services Ltd (+20.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.70 %: that much free cash flow GR Engineering Services Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GR Engineering Services Ltd it is A$3.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$7.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GR Engineering Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GNG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$7.70, fair value A$3.82, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$7.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.82). For GR Engineering Services Ltd the two are A$3.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GR Engineering Services Ltd worth?
The market values GR Engineering Services Ltd at about A$1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$7.70; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNG?
Our models span a range for GR Engineering Services Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.68, base A$3.82, optimistic A$5.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$7.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNG?
GR Engineering Services Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 13.6, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 18.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
Balance-sheet figures for GR Engineering Services Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 41.3%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNG from its 52-week high?
GR Engineering Services Ltd trades at A$7.70, at its 52-week high of A$7.70 and 130% above the low of A$3.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GR Engineering Services Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GR Engineering Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$7.70, calculated fair value A$3.82 (−50%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNG calculated?
We run GR Engineering Services Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. GR Engineering Services Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$7.70. Our model-based fair value is A$3.82, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GR Engineering Services Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (A$2.68 to A$5.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) come from?
Earnings per share at GR Engineering Services Ltd grew +6.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of GR Engineering Services Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The market capitalisation of GR Engineering Services Ltd is A$1.3B (≈ $934M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GR Engineering Services Ltd is 3.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
Earnings per share at GR Engineering Services Ltd are A$0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The dividend yield of GR Engineering Services Ltd is 3.1% (payout 141%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The net margin of GR Engineering Services Ltd is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GR Engineering Services Ltd is 41.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GR Engineering Services Ltd is 20.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
The operating margin of GR Engineering Services Ltd is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
Revenue at GR Engineering Services Ltd is growing −19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG)?
Earnings per share at GR Engineering Services Ltd are growing −23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does GR Engineering Services Ltd (GNG) hold?
GR Engineering Services Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$61.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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