Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Growthpoint Properties Australia A$1.52, price A$2.00, upside -24.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.54 – A$3.17 · fair‑value band A$0.5600 – A$3.26 · the A$2.00 price screens above the A$1.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Growthpoint Properties Australia vision is to create sustainable value in everything they do, by being the forward-thinking, trusted partner of choice. Since 2009, They been investing in high-quality Australian real estate. Growthpoint Properties Australia directly owned portfolio comprises modern, high-quality, office and industrial properties.
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Growthpoint Properties Australia vision is to create sustainable value in everything they do, by being the forward-thinking, trusted partner of choice. Since 2009, They been investing in high-quality Australian real estate. Growthpoint Properties Australia directly owned portfolio comprises modern, high-quality, office and industrial properties. Through funds management business, they also manage a portfolio of office, industrial and retail assets for third-party wholesale syndicates and institutional investors. Growthpoint Properties Australia are an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT), with a focused, passionate and agile team committed to delivering results together. They are dedicated to genuine, long-standing relationships, fostered through innovation, collaboration and the pursuit of being a great partner. They are committed to operating in a sustainable way and reducing our impact on the environment and are proud to have achieved our Net Zero Target by 1 July 2025 across our directly owned operationally controlled office assets and corporate activities. Growthpoint Properties Australia is listed on the ASX and is part of the S&P/ASX 300. Moodys has assigned a Baa2 domestic backed senior secured bank credit facility rating. Growthpoint Properties Australia was established on February 22, 2007 and incorporated in Australia.
Stock analysis
Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) currently trades at A$2.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.52, implying the stock looks roughly 31.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$2.81 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$2.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$1.14, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.5600 (bear) to A$3.26 (bull), the price of A$2.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Growthpoint Properties Australia reported revenue of A$327M in FY2025 versus A$294M in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$125M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.6B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 40.0 · P/S ratio 4.92 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 9.2% · Net margin −38.2% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −24%, GOZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.5600Fair Value A$1.52Bull A$3.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
79.3% (2018) → 71.1% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−24% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)68% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Growthpoint Properties Australia Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GOZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.52 versus a price of A$2.00, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GOZ?
Our model-based fair value for Growthpoint Properties Australia is A$1.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.00.
What is the quality score of GOZ?
Growthpoint Properties Australia has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.5600, optimistic scenario A$3.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Growthpoint Properties Australia stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.52, about −24% upside versus a price of A$2.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.5600, optimistic scenario A$3.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Growthpoint Properties Australia reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$333M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Growthpoint Properties Australia pay a dividend?
Growthpoint Properties Australia currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Growthpoint Properties Australia would have to grow free cash flow by +19.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GOZ use?
Our models discount Growthpoint Properties Australia at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Growthpoint Properties Australia that is +19.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Growthpoint Properties Australia grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +19.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Growthpoint Properties Australia (+19.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.43 %: that much free cash flow Growthpoint Properties Australia produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Growthpoint Properties Australia it is A$1.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$2.00. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Growthpoint Properties Australia stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GOZ trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.00, fair value A$1.52, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GOZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.52). For Growthpoint Properties Australia the two are A$0.4800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Growthpoint Properties Australia worth?
The market values Growthpoint Properties Australia at about A$1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$2.00; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GOZ?
Our models span a range for Growthpoint Properties Australia: cautious scenario A$0.5600, base A$1.52, optimistic A$3.26 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$2.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GOZ?
Growthpoint Properties Australia trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 0.5, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 12.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GOZ?
The PEG ratio of Growthpoint Properties Australia is 2.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Growthpoint Properties Australia (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GOZ from its 52-week high?
Growthpoint Properties Australia trades at A$2.00, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$2.46 and 1% above the low of A$1.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Growthpoint Properties Australia?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Growthpoint Properties Australia stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$2.00, calculated fair value A$1.52 (−24%), Quality Score 63/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GOZ calculated?
We run Growthpoint Properties Australia through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Growthpoint Properties Australia itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$2.00. Our model-based fair value is A$1.52, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Growthpoint Properties Australia right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.5600 to A$3.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Growthpoint Properties Australia
How large is the market capitalisation of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The market capitalisation of Growthpoint Properties Australia is A$1.6B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Growthpoint Properties Australia is 4.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Earnings per share at Growthpoint Properties Australia are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The dividend yield of Growthpoint Properties Australia is 9.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The net margin of Growthpoint Properties Australia is −38.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Growthpoint Properties Australia is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Growthpoint Properties Australia is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
The operating margin of Growthpoint Properties Australia is 67.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Revenue at Growthpoint Properties Australia is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)?
Earnings per share at Growthpoint Properties Australia are growing −75.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) carry?
The net debt of Growthpoint Properties Australia is A$1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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