Great Portland Estates Plc (GPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · GB · Market cap £1.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.36 – £5.50 · fair‑value band £1.42 – £2.37 · the £3.36 price screens above the £1.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Great Portland Estates Plc (GPE) currently trades at £3.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.90, implying the stock looks roughly 43.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at £128M. Revenue grew 28.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at £855M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.42 (bear case) to £2.37 (bull case); at £3.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -43%, GPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (£4.15) versus Dividend Discount (£0.8500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Great Portland Estates Plc is a FTSE 250 property investment and development company, owning a 2.4 billion pounds portfolio of London real estate. They aim to deliver value by unlocking the often hidden potential in central London commercial real estate, a market we know inside out.
Full company description
Great Portland Estates Plc is a FTSE 250 property investment and development company, owning a 2.4 billion pounds portfolio of London real estate. They aim to deliver value by unlocking the often hidden potential in central London commercial real estate, a market we know inside out. They reposition properties, let off low rents and rich with opportunities for improvement, into more valuable spaces that are attractive to a diverse range of occupiers. The firm operate in highly cyclical markets. The firm's strategy is to capture the opportunities that this cyclicality creates through our active business model, flexing our activities in tune with changing market conditions, increasing and reducing operational risk as appropriate, whilst always maintaining low financial leverage. Their culture lies at the heart of our ability to achieve our strategic goals. It is entrepreneurial and pragmatic with an emphasis on cross-disciplinary teamwork. They also believe that building strong and enduring relationships with our occupiers, service partners, joint venture partners and other stakeholders is critical to our success. Great Portland Estates Plc was incorporated in 1959 in United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Great Portland Estates Plc reported revenue of £118M in FY2026 versus £84.2M in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was £155M in FY2026, compounding −2.0%/yr from FY2022.
GPE screens 43% overvalued. Compare with MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A →
Peer Group
REIT - Office · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €15.23 | €6.46 | -58% |
| BXP, Inc BXP | $69.11 | $53.27 | -23% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.75 | $41.59 | -20% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $50.12 | $59.48 | +19% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $15.38 | $4.60 | -70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.28 SGD | 1.14 SGD | -11% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $32.15 | $17.62 | -45% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $39.42 | $40.37 | +2% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.20 SGD | 1.68 SGD | -24% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.64 | A$4.49 | -20% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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