Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Granite Ridge Resources Inc $3.37, price $4.51, upside -25.3%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.82 – $7.55 · fair‑value band $3.37 – $3.92 · the $4.51 price screens above the $3.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. operates as a non-operated oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It owns a portfolio of wells and acreage across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Denver-Julesburg (DJ), Appalachian basins, and other unconventional basins in the United States. The company is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT) currently trades at $4.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.37, implying the stock looks roughly 33.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.57 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the $4.51 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.58, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.37 (bear) to $3.92 (bull), the price of $4.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Granite Ridge Resources Inc reported revenue of $450M in FY2025 versus $290M in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $24.4M in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $653M · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2000 · Dividend yield 9.8% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity −4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.5% · Operating margin 36.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −25%, GRNT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.37Fair Value $3.37Bull $3.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−40% → 20%
Compare Granite Ridge Resources Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)36% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.38× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA3.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.37 versus a price of $4.51, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRNT?
Our model-based fair value for Granite Ridge Resources Inc is $3.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.51.
What is the quality score of GRNT?
Granite Ridge Resources Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.37, optimistic scenario $3.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granite Ridge Resources Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.37, about −25% upside versus a price of $4.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.37, optimistic scenario $3.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Granite Ridge Resources Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $472M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Granite Ridge Resources Inc pay a dividend?
Granite Ridge Resources Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granite Ridge Resources Inc it is $3.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.51. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Granite Ridge Resources Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GRNT trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.51, fair value $3.37, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRNT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.37). For Granite Ridge Resources Inc the two are $1.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granite Ridge Resources Inc worth?
The market values Granite Ridge Resources Inc at about $653M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.51; our models calculate a fair value of $3.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRNT?
Our models span a range for Granite Ridge Resources Inc: cautious scenario $3.37, base $3.37, optimistic $3.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granite Ridge Resources Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.6%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRNT from its 52-week high?
Granite Ridge Resources Inc trades at $4.51, about 23% below its 52-week high of $5.84 and 14% above the low of $3.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granite Ridge Resources Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granite Ridge Resources Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.51, calculated fair value $3.37 (−25%), Quality Score 51/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRNT calculated?
We run Granite Ridge Resources Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Granite Ridge Resources Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.51. Our model-based fair value is $3.37, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granite Ridge Resources Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Granite Ridge Resources Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The market capitalisation of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is $653M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Earnings per share at Granite Ridge Resources Inc are $−0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The dividend yield of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is 9.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The net margin of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is −4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is 17.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
The operating margin of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Revenue at Granite Ridge Resources Inc is growing +37.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT)?
Earnings per share at Granite Ridge Resources Inc are growing +19.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT) generate?
The free cash flow of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is −$123M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Granite Ridge Resources Inc (GRNT) carry?
The net debt of Granite Ridge Resources Inc is $353M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026