Golden State Bancorp (GSBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Golden State Bancorp $32.75, price $39.40, upside -16.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.60 – $40.50 · fair‑value band $29.49 – $47.80 · the $39.40 price screens above the $32.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Golden State Bancorp operates as the holding company for Golden State Bank that provides personal and business banking services in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, and San Bernardino counties in California.
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Golden State Bancorp operates as the holding company for Golden State Bank that provides personal and business banking services in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, and San Bernardino counties in California. The company accepts checking, savings, deposits, and money market accounts, and cash management services, as well as certificates of deposit. Its loan products comprise commercial real estate, business operating term, and construction loans, as well as non-owner occupied residential financing, strategic bridge financing solutions, and lines of credit. In addition, the company offers bill pay, and online and mobile banking services. It serves the business, commercial, and professional markets through its branches located in Glendale, California, and Upland. Golden State Bancorp was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Glendale, California.
Stock analysis
Golden State Bancorp (GSBX) currently trades at $39.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.75, implying the stock looks roughly 20.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $48.44 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $39.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.18, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $29.49 (bear) to $47.80 (bull), the price of $39.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Golden State Bancorp reported revenue of $35.3M in FY2025 versus $17.7M in FY2021, a compound +18.8%/yr. Reported net income was $9.3M in FY2025, compounding +27.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $110M · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 2.78 · EPS (TTM) $3.69 · Net margin 26.4% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin 41.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −17%, GSBX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $29.49Fair Value $32.75Bull $47.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.71 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2015 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 16%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~20Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)28% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)42% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Golden State Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GSBX
Frequently asked questions
Is Golden State Bancorp (GSBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.75 versus a price of $39.40, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GSBX?
Our model-based fair value for Golden State Bancorp is $32.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.40.
What is the quality score of GSBX?
Golden State Bancorp has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.49, optimistic scenario $47.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Golden State Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.75, about −17% upside versus a price of $39.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.49, optimistic scenario $47.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Golden State Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $38.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Golden State Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GSBX use?
Our models discount Golden State Bancorp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Golden State Bancorp that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Golden State Bancorp (GSBX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Golden State Bancorp grew +24.8 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Golden State Bancorp (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.78 %: that much free cash flow Golden State Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Golden State Bancorp it is $32.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $39.40. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Golden State Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GSBX trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.40, fair value $32.75, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GSBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.75). For Golden State Bancorp the two are $6.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Golden State Bancorp worth?
The market values Golden State Bancorp at about $110M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $39.40; our models calculate a fair value of $32.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GSBX?
Our models span a range for Golden State Bancorp: cautious scenario $29.49, base $32.75, optimistic $47.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $39.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GSBX?
Golden State Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Golden State Bancorp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GSBX from its 52-week high?
Golden State Bancorp trades at $39.40, about 3% below its 52-week high of $40.50 and 37% above the low of $28.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Golden State Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Golden State Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $39.40, calculated fair value $32.75 (−17%), Quality Score 50/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GSBX calculated?
We run Golden State Bancorp through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Golden State Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $39.40. Our model-based fair value is $32.75, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Golden State Bancorp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Golden State Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The market capitalisation of Golden State Bancorp is $110M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Golden State Bancorp is 2.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Earnings per share at Golden State Bancorp are $3.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The net margin of Golden State Bancorp is 26.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Golden State Bancorp is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Golden State Bancorp is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
The operating margin of Golden State Bancorp is 41.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Revenue at Golden State Bancorp is growing +20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Golden State Bancorp (GSBX)?
Earnings per share at Golden State Bancorp are growing +16.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Golden State Bancorp (GSBX) hold?
Golden State Bancorp holds more cash than debt, $16.5M net (fiscal year 2006). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026