Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gentrack Group Ltd A$3.61, price A$3.10, upside +16.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.18 – A$13.01 · fair‑value band A$2.52 – A$4.88 · the A$3.10 price screens below the A$3.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Gentrack Group Limited engages in the development, integration, and support of enterprise billing and customer management software solutions for the energy and water utility, and airport industries. The company operates in two segments, Utility Billing Software and Airport Management Software.
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Gentrack Group Limited engages in the development, integration, and support of enterprise billing and customer management software solutions for the energy and water utility, and airport industries. The company operates in two segments, Utility Billing Software and Airport Management Software. Its products portfolio includes end-to-end offerings; customer engagement; billing and finance solutions; business and data applications; distributed energy resource management; customer information systems; and debt management tools. The company also provides support services, such as upgrades, software revisions, and extended support, as well as software development and sales. It operates in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Gentrack Group Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) currently trades at A$3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.61, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$5.50 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$3.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.44, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$2.52 (bear) to A$4.88 (bull), the price of A$3.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Gentrack Group Ltd reported revenue of 230M NZD in FY2025 versus 106M NZD in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was 20.7M NZD in FY2025, compounding +59.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$349M (≈ $245M) · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1400 · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 16%, GTK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$2.52Fair Value A$3.61Bull A$4.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1381 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+47.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.43% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 8%
2025 sits 103% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gentrack Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GTK
Frequently asked questions
Is Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.61 versus a price of A$3.10, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GTK?
Our model-based fair value for Gentrack Group Ltd is A$3.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.10.
What is the quality score of GTK?
Gentrack Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.52, optimistic scenario A$4.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gentrack Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.61, about +16% upside versus a price of A$3.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$2.52, optimistic scenario A$4.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Gentrack Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 228M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gentrack Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GTK use?
Our models discount Gentrack Group Ltd at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gentrack Group Ltd that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gentrack Group Ltd grew +18.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gentrack Group Ltd (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.88 %: that much free cash flow Gentrack Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gentrack Group Ltd it is A$3.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$3.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gentrack Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GTK trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.10, fair value A$3.61, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GTK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.61). For Gentrack Group Ltd the two are A$0.5100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gentrack Group Ltd worth?
The market values Gentrack Group Ltd at about A$349M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$3.10; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GTK?
Our models span a range for Gentrack Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.52, base A$3.61, optimistic A$4.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$3.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GTK?
Gentrack Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gentrack Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GTK from its 52-week high?
Gentrack Group Ltd trades at A$3.10, about 68% below its 52-week high of A$9.64 and 7% above the low of A$2.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gentrack Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gentrack Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$3.10, calculated fair value A$3.61 (+16%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GTK calculated?
We run Gentrack Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gentrack Group Ltd currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$3.10. Our model-based fair value is A$3.61, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gentrack Group Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (A$2.52 to A$4.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) come from?
Earnings per share at Gentrack Group Ltd grew +1.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.4 %, EBIT margin −22.8 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +12.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gentrack Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The market capitalisation of Gentrack Group Ltd is A$349M (≈ $245M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gentrack Group Ltd is 1.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Earnings per share at Gentrack Group Ltd are A$0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The net margin of Gentrack Group Ltd is 9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gentrack Group Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gentrack Group Ltd is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
The operating margin of Gentrack Group Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Revenue at Gentrack Group Ltd is growing −1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK)?
Earnings per share at Gentrack Group Ltd are growing −23.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gentrack Group Ltd (GTK) hold?
Gentrack Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 68.0M NZD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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