Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) SEK 52.05, price SEK 17.35, upside +200.0%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range kr 15.27 – kr 25.17 · fair‑value band kr 26.34 – kr 93.69 · the kr 17.35 price screens below the kr 52.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) purchases and recycles gold and jewelry from private individuals primarily in Sweden, Norway, and Finland. It offers a digitalized process for consumers to sell their gold by mail. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD) currently trades at kr 17.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 52.05, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 145.14 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 17.35 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 20.14, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 26.34 (bear) to kr 93.69 (bull), the price of kr 17.35 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) reported revenue of 405M SEK in FY2025 versus 83.7M SEK in FY2022, a compound +69.1%/yr. Reported net income was 70.8M SEK in FY2025, compounding +236.8%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 364M SEK (≈ $36.7M) · P/E ratio 4.2 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) kr 4.16 · Dividend yield 11.6% · Net margin 17.5% · Return on equity 125% · Return on assets (EBIT) 43.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, GULD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 26.34Fair Value kr 52.05Bull kr 93.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.59 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+125.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.5% (2022) → 22.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.1% a year for the price.
Compare Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)124.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets67.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth85.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)11.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GULD
Frequently asked questions
Is Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 52.05 versus a price of kr 17.35, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GULD?
Our model-based fair value for Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is kr 52.05 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 17.35.
What is the quality score of GULD?
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 52.05 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 26.34, optimistic scenario kr 93.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 52.05, about +200% upside versus a price of kr 17.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 26.34, optimistic scenario kr 93.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 476M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +69.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GULD use?
Our models discount Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) that is -20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) grew +69.1 % a year. The price currently implies -20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (-20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.80 %: that much free cash flow Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) it is kr 52.05 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of kr 17.35. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GULD trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 17.35, fair value kr 52.05, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GULD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 17.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 52.05). For Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) the two are kr 34.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) worth?
The market values Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) at about 364M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is kr 17.35; our models calculate a fair value of kr 52.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GULD?
Our models span a range for Guldbrev Holding AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 26.34, base kr 52.05, optimistic kr 93.69 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price kr 17.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GULD?
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 52.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 124.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GULD from its 52-week high?
Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) trades at kr 17.35, about 31% below its 52-week high of kr 25.17 and 14% above the low of kr 15.27 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 52.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guldbrev Holding AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price kr 17.35, calculated fair value kr 52.05 (+200%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GULD calculated?
We run Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 52.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was kr 17.35. Our model-based fair value is kr 52.05, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (78/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 26.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (kr 26.34 to kr 93.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The market capitalisation of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 364M SEK (≈ $36.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Earnings per share at Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) are kr 4.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The dividend yield of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 11.6% (payout 48.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The net margin of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 17.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 125% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 43.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
The operating margin of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 26.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Revenue at Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is growing +85.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +69.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD)?
Earnings per share at Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) are growing +98.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) (GULD) carry?
The net debt of Guldbrev Holding AB (publ) is 2.4M SEK (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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