Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gozco Plantations Tbk IDR 190, price IDR 185, upside +2.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 50.00 IDR – 394.00 IDR · fair‑value band 96.51 IDR – 316.28 IDR · the 185.00 IDR price screens below the 190.21 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Gozco Plantations Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes crude palm oil and palm kernel in Indonesia. The company engages in the planting of palms; and production of fresh fruit bunches. It is also involved in oil palm plantation; trading; and services related to agrobusiness and agro-industries.
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PT Gozco Plantations Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes crude palm oil and palm kernel in Indonesia. The company engages in the planting of palms; and production of fresh fruit bunches. It is also involved in oil palm plantation; trading; and services related to agrobusiness and agro-industries. The company was formerly known as PT Surya Gemilang Sentosa and changed its name to PT Gozco Plantations Tbk in January 2007. PT Gozco Plantations Tbk was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) currently trades at 185.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 190.21 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 2.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 303.20 IDR per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the 185.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 65.20 IDR, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 96.51 IDR (bear) to 316.28 IDR (bull), the price of 185.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Gozco Plantations Tbk reported revenue of 873B IDR in FY2025 versus 707B IDR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 105B IDR in FY2025, compounding +67.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1T IDR (≈ $61.3M) · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) 15.86 IDR · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin −0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 3%, GZCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 96.51 IDRFair Value 190.21 IDRBull 316.28 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (11.65 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+66.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+66.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.51% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−37% → 12%
2025 sits 76% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−35% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 190.21 IDR versus a price of 185.00 IDR, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GZCO?
Our model-based fair value for Gozco Plantations Tbk is 190.21 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 185.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of GZCO?
Gozco Plantations Tbk has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 190.21 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 96.51 IDR, optimistic scenario 316.28 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gozco Plantations Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 190.21 IDR, about +3% upside versus a price of 185.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 96.51 IDR, optimistic scenario 316.28 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Gozco Plantations Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 797B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gozco Plantations Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +31.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GZCO use?
Our models discount Gozco Plantations Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gozco Plantations Tbk that is +31.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gozco Plantations Tbk grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +31.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gozco Plantations Tbk (+31.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.08 %: that much free cash flow Gozco Plantations Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gozco Plantations Tbk it is 190.21 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 185.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gozco Plantations Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GZCO trades below its calculated fair value: price 185.00 IDR, fair value 190.21 IDR, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GZCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (185.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (190.21 IDR). For Gozco Plantations Tbk the two are 5.21 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gozco Plantations Tbk worth?
The market values Gozco Plantations Tbk at about 1.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 185.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 190.21 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GZCO?
Our models span a range for Gozco Plantations Tbk: cautious scenario 96.51 IDR, base 190.21 IDR, optimistic 316.28 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 185.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GZCO?
Gozco Plantations Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 190.21 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GZCO?
The PEG ratio of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 0.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gozco Plantations Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GZCO from its 52-week high?
Gozco Plantations Tbk trades at 185.00 IDR, about 53% below its 52-week high of 394.00 IDR and 61% above the low of 115.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 190.21 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gozco Plantations Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gozco Plantations Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 185.00 IDR, calculated fair value 190.21 IDR (+3%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GZCO calculated?
We run Gozco Plantations Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 190.21 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gozco Plantations Tbk currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 185.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 190.21 IDR, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gozco Plantations Tbk right now?
The model range is unusually wide (96.51 IDR to 316.28 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Gozco Plantations Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The market capitalisation of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 1.1T IDR (≈ $61.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Earnings per share at Gozco Plantations Tbk are 15.86 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The net margin of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
The operating margin of Gozco Plantations Tbk is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Revenue at Gozco Plantations Tbk is growing −35.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO)?
Earnings per share at Gozco Plantations Tbk are growing +24.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) carry?
The net debt of Gozco Plantations Tbk is 250B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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