HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD stock S$1.23, price S$4.98, that is 75.3% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.45 SGD – 5.49 SGD · fair‑value band 0.2460 SGD – 3.26 SGD · the 4.98 SGD price screens above the 1.23 SGD fair value. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Hotel Properties Limited, an investment holding company, owns, manages, and operates hotels in Singapore and internationally. It operates through Hotels, Properties, and Others segments.
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The company engages in the rental and sale of residential properties and commercial units; property development and project management activities; trading in quoted investments and share dealing; card service operations; and provision of administrative and information services.
In addition, it owns and operates hotels under the Four Seasons Hotels & Resorts, COMO Hotels & Resorts, InterContinental Hotels Group, Six Senses Hotels & Resorts, Marriott International, Hard Rock Hotels, and Concorde Hotels & Resorts brands, as well as shopping galleries primarily in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Maldives, Seychelles, Vanuatu, the United States, Bhutan, Tanzania, South Africa, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Sri Lanka.
The company was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) currently trades at 4.98 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.23 SGD, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 2.85 SGD per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 4.98 SGD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.3000 SGD, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 0.2460 SGD (bear) to 3.26 SGD (bull), the price of 4.98 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD reported revenue of 743M SGD in FY2025 versus 344M SGD in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was −46.2M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6B SGD (≈ $2.1B) Mid · P/S ratio 3.65 · EPS (TTM) −0.2000 SGD · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −13.2% · Return on equity −4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −75%, H15 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.3000 SGD to 2.85 SGD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear0.2460 SGDFair Value 1.23 SGDBull3.26 SGD
Price 4.98 SGD · Downside -75.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−34.6% (2020) → 9.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−75.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−13.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.82× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
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Is HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.23 SGD versus a price of 4.98 SGD, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H15?
Our model-based fair value for HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 1.23 SGD (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.98 SGD.
What is the quality score of H15?
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.23 SGD (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.2460 SGD, optimistic scenario 3.26 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.23 SGD, about 75% lower versus a price of 4.98 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.2460 SGD, optimistic scenario 3.26 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 735M SGD (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD pay a dividend?
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD currently shows a dividend yield of 0.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) and when is the ex-dividend date?
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD pays a dividend of 0.04 SGD per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was May 8, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2000. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.67 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD would have to grow free cash flow by +31.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of H15 use?
Our models discount HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD that is +31.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD grew +23.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +31.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (+31.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.15 %: that much free cash flow HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD it is 1.23 SGD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 4.98 SGD. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, H15 trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.98 SGD, fair value 1.23 SGD, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H15?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.98 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.23 SGD). For HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD the two are 3.75 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD worth?
The market values HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD at about 2.6B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 4.98 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 1.23 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H15?
Our models span a range for HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD: cautious scenario 0.2460 SGD, base 1.23 SGD, optimistic 3.26 SGD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 4.98 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
Balance-sheet figures for HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −4.5%, debt of 0.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H15 from its 52-week high?
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD trades at 4.98 SGD, about 2% below its 52-week high of 5.09 SGD and 13% above the low of 4.39 SGD (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.23 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 4.98 SGD, calculated fair value 1.23 SGD (−75%), Quality Score 36/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H15 calculated?
We run HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD through 9 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 1.23 SGD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 4.98 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 1.23 SGD, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.26 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (0.2460 SGD to 3.26 SGD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The market capitalisation of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 2.6B SGD (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 3.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
Earnings per share at HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD are −0.2000 SGD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The dividend yield of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The net margin of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is −13.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
The operating margin of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
Revenue at HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15)?
Earnings per share at HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD are growing −96.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD (H15) carry?
The net debt of HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD is 1.8B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026