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Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Harleysville Financial Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US41284E1001

HF Harleysville Financial Corp logo Some data Sep 17, 2026

Harleysville Financial Corp

HARL · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $23.26 · Overvalued (−30%)
!Quality 61/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 35.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·4.01% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
✓Wide moat 65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$35.80 $13.60 Fair Value $23.26 Mar 2019 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.60 – $35.80 · fair‑value band $21.28 – $28.64 · the $33.40 price screens above the $23.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

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Company profile

Harleysville Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Harleysville Bank that provides banking products and services in Pennsylvania. The company offers various deposit products, including savings, money market, and checking accounts, as well as certificates of deposits.

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Harleysville Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Harleysville Bank that provides banking products and services in Pennsylvania. The company offers various deposit products, including savings, money market, and checking accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also provides loan products, such as mortgage, home equity, savings account, business term, and commercial real estate loans, as well as line of credit. In addition, the company offers business banking services comprising priority online banking, positive pay fraud prevention, business bill payment, mobile banking, access 24 telephone banking, business debit mastercard, priority remote deposit, automated clearing house processing, sweep account, zero balance account, other cash management, and employee services. Further, it provides investment services, such as financial consultation, cash and wealth management, education planning, investment strategy, insurance, retirement and estate planning, financial and goal planning, and asset allocation services, as well as a range of products, such as fixed and variable annuities, mutual funds, life insurances, stocks and bonds, tax-advantaged investments, long-term care insurances, disability insurances, retirement plans/individual retirement accounts, wrap accounts, and unit investment trusts. Additionally, the company offers online banking and bill pay; mobile banking; debit card; tuition rewards; and telephone banking and direct deposit. The company was formerly known as Harleysville Savings Financial Corporation and changed its name to Harleysville Financial Corporation in May 2017. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Harleysville, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL) currently trades at $33.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.26, implying the stock looks roughly 43.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.82 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $33.40 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.03, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $21.28 (bear) to $28.64 (bull), the price of $33.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Harleysville Financial Corp reported revenue of $29.7M in FY2025 versus $25.7M in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $9.5M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $120M · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) $3.63 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 32.1% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −30%, HARL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $21.28 Fair Value $23.26 Bull $28.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.88 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $20.50 $22.12 $24.81 76
Gordon GGM $9.21 $10.03 $11.07 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.21 $10.98 $12.97 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.21 $10.03 $11.07 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.21 $10.98 $12.97 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $26.12 $34.82 $43.53 63
P/B Multiple $26.72 $35.63 $44.54 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.72 $17.05 $25.45 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $20.50 $22.12 $24.81 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 89

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 99
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 41%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

HARL screens 44% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1073 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 36% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.93× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.66× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)78 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)53 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)54 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)80 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19 20.20 THB 6.69 THB −67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.35 HK$78.59 +53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.74 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.16 $15.60 −33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €102.32 €105.99 +4%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.92 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.15 $9.67 −13%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,359 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $231.49 $159.52 −31%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.28 SGD 19.80 SGD −37%

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Harleysville Financial Corp · Fair Value
$23.26 −44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harleysville Financial Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HARL

Frequently asked questions

Is Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.26 versus a price of $33.40, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HARL?
Our model-based fair value for Harleysville Financial Corp is $23.26 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.40.
What is the quality score of HARL?
Harleysville Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.26 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.28, optimistic scenario $28.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harleysville Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.26, about −30% upside versus a price of $33.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.28, optimistic scenario $28.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Harleysville Financial Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Harleysville Financial Corp pay a dividend?
Harleysville Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harleysville Financial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +19.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HARL use?
Our models discount Harleysville Financial Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harleysville Financial Corp that is +19.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harleysville Financial Corp grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +19.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harleysville Financial Corp (+19.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.91 %: that much free cash flow Harleysville Financial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harleysville Financial Corp it is $23.26 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $33.40. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harleysville Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, HARL trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.40, fair value $23.26, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HARL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.26). For Harleysville Financial Corp the two are $10.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harleysville Financial Corp worth?
The market values Harleysville Financial Corp at about $120M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $33.40; our models calculate a fair value of $23.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HARL?
Our models span a range for Harleysville Financial Corp: cautious scenario $21.28, base $23.26, optimistic $28.64 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $33.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HARL?
Harleysville Financial Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harleysville Financial Corp (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HARL from its 52-week high?
Harleysville Financial Corp trades at $33.40, about 15% below its 52-week high of $29.00 and 59% above the low of $20.95 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harleysville Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harleysville Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $33.40, calculated fair value $23.26 (−30%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HARL calculated?
We run Harleysville Financial Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Harleysville Financial Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $33.40. Our model-based fair value is $23.26, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harleysville Financial Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Harleysville Financial Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The market capitalisation of Harleysville Financial Corp is $120M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harleysville Financial Corp is 2.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Earnings per share at Harleysville Financial Corp are $3.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The dividend yield of Harleysville Financial Corp is 4.0% (payout 36.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The net margin of Harleysville Financial Corp is 32.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harleysville Financial Corp is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harleysville Financial Corp is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
The operating margin of Harleysville Financial Corp is 44.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Revenue at Harleysville Financial Corp is growing +15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL)?
Earnings per share at Harleysville Financial Corp are growing +17.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Harleysville Financial Corp (HARL) carry?
The net debt of Harleysville Financial Corp is $147M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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