Horizon Bancorp, Inc (HBNC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $993M
Horizon Bancorp, Inc
HBNC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +5.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.94 to $10.30). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.73 – $20.80 · fair‑value band $3.94 – $10.30 · the $20.42 price screens above the $7.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Horizon Bancorp, Inc (HBNC) currently trades at $20.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.30, implying the stock looks roughly 64.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.1%. Net debt stands at $338M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.94 (bear case) to $10.30 (bull case); at $20.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -64%, HBNC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($8.98) versus Dividend Discount ($6.62). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to individuals and corporate clients in Indiana and Michigan in the United States.
Full company description
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to individuals and corporate clients in Indiana and Michigan in the United States. The company offers checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposit, and time deposit accounts, as well as non-interest and interest-bearing demand deposits. It also provides commercial loans, residential real estate loans, mortgage warehouse loans, and consumer loans; home equity loans and lines; auto loans; personal loans and lines; business loans and lines; SBA loans; public fund, medical practice, and franchise financing; and equipment finance solutions. In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; debit and credit cards; treasury management; and remote deposit, merchant processing, online payment portal, lockbox, smart safe, ACH origination, online bill pay, wire transfer, and positive and reverse positive pay services, as well as sells various life insurance products. Further, it provides online and mobile banking; health savings accounts; wealth management, financial planning, investment management, and insurance services; retirement services, including individual retirement accounts (IRAs), business IRAs, and employee benefit plans; and estate planning and settlement services. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Horizon Bancorp, Inc reported revenue of $103M in FY2025 versus $247M in FY2021, a compound −19.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$150M in FY2025.
HBNC screens 64% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results, Highlighted by Continued Peer Leading Profitability Metrics
- Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
- Horizon (HBNC) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Horizon Bancorp (IN) Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
Compare Horizon Bancorp, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Horizon Bancorp, Inc (HBNC) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of HBNC?
What is the quality score of HBNC?
What is the net profit margin of HBNC?
Does Horizon Bancorp, Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Horizon Bancorp, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.