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Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Horizon Bancorp $7.08, price $19.02, upside -62.8%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US4404071049

HB Horizon Bancorp logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Horizon Bancorp

HBNC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $7.08 · Strongly overvalued (−63%)
!Quality 38/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −16.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -145.9% net margin (FY2025)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.36% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$20.80 $6.73 Fair Value $7.08 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.73 – $20.80 · fair‑value band $3.87 – $9.87 · the $19.02 price screens above the $7.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to individuals and corporate clients in Indiana and Michigan in the United States.

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Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to individuals and corporate clients in Indiana and Michigan in the United States. The company offers checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposit, and time deposit accounts, as well as non-interest and interest-bearing demand deposits. It also provides commercial loans, residential real estate loans, mortgage warehouse loans, and consumer loans; home equity loans and lines; auto loans; personal loans and lines; business loans and lines; SBA loans; public fund, medical practice, and franchise financing; and equipment finance solutions. In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; debit and credit cards; treasury management; and remote deposit, merchant processing, online payment portal, lockbox, smart safe, ACH origination, online bill pay, wire transfer, and positive and reverse positive pay services, as well as sells various life insurance products. Further, it provides online and mobile banking; health savings accounts; wealth management, financial planning, investment management, and insurance services; retirement services, including individual retirement accounts (IRAs), business IRAs, and employee benefit plans; and estate planning and settlement services. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.

Stock analysis

Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) currently trades at $19.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.08, implying the stock looks roughly 168.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.98 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $19.02 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.62, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.87 (bear) to $9.87 (bull), the price of $19.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Horizon Bancorp reported revenue of $103M in FY2025 versus $247M in FY2021, a compound −19.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$150M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $975M · EPS (TTM) $−3.28 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin −146% · Return on equity −20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin 46.6% · Revenue (TTM) −$23.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −63%, HBNC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.87 Fair Value $7.08 Bull $9.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $4.46 $8.04 $11.07 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.46 $6.62 $8.59 67
NCAV (Graham) $6.70 $8.98 $13.41 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.46 $8.04 $11.07 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.46 $6.62 $8.59 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.70 $8.98 $13.41 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 13
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−71.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
30.8% (2020) → −193.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price.

HBNC screens 169% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −63% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −146% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 47% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.46× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.43× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.80× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)43 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)67 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.80 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.65 HK$64.29 +24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹738.60 ₹418.52 −43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Horizon Bancorp · Fair Value
$7.08 −169%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horizon Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBNC

Frequently asked questions

Is Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.08 versus a price of $19.02, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBNC?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Bancorp is $7.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.02.
What is the quality score of HBNC?
Horizon Bancorp has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.87, optimistic scenario $9.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.08, about −63% upside versus a price of $19.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.87, optimistic scenario $9.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Horizon Bancorp pay a dividend?
Horizon Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horizon Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HBNC use?
Our models discount Horizon Bancorp at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horizon Bancorp that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Horizon Bancorp grew -16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horizon Bancorp (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.62 %: that much free cash flow Horizon Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Bancorp it is $7.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $19.02. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HBNC trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.02, fair value $7.08, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.08). For Horizon Bancorp the two are $11.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Bancorp worth?
The market values Horizon Bancorp at about $975M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $19.02; our models calculate a fair value of $7.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBNC?
Our models span a range for Horizon Bancorp: cautious scenario $3.87, base $7.08, optimistic $9.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $19.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HBNC?
The PEG ratio of Horizon Bancorp is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Bancorp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −20.1%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HBNC from its 52-week high?
Horizon Bancorp trades at $19.02, about 9% below its 52-week high of $20.80 and 29% above the low of $14.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $19.02, calculated fair value $7.08 (−63%), Quality Score 38/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HBNC calculated?
We run Horizon Bancorp through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $19.02. Our model-based fair value is $7.08, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.87 to $9.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) come from?
Earnings per share at Horizon Bancorp grew −1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −8.5 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Horizon Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Bancorp is $975M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Bancorp are $−3.28. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The dividend yield of Horizon Bancorp is 3.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The net margin of Horizon Bancorp is −146% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Bancorp is −20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Bancorp is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
The operating margin of Horizon Bancorp is 46.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) generate?
Horizon Bancorp generates revenue of −$23.2M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
Revenue at Horizon Bancorp is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Bancorp are growing −5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) carry?
The net debt of Horizon Bancorp is $338M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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