HCI Group (HCI) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.3B
HCI Group
HCI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price +3.9% over the past month.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($228.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $136.50 – $204.86 · fair‑value band $228.39 – $380.64 · the $182.02 price screens below the $304.51 fair value. As of Jul 13, 2026.
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HCI Group (HCI) currently trades at $182.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $304.51, implying the stock looks roughly 67.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, HCI Group generated revenue of $927M at a net margin of 32.6%. Revenue grew 12.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $228.39 (bear case) to $380.64 (bull case); at $182.02, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 55% fair-value upside, at 67%, HCI screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company operates through Insurance Operations, Exzeo, Reciprocal Exchange Operations, and Real Estate segments.
Full company description
HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company operates through Insurance Operations, Exzeo, Reciprocal Exchange Operations, and Real Estate segments. It provides homeowners' property and casualty insurance products; claim adjusting and processing services; turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to property and casualty insurance carriers and its agents through the Exzeo platform; and SAMSTM, a web-based system designed to automate and streamline the process of managing insurance policies. The company also offers Harmony, a policy administration platform; ClaimColony, an end-to-end claims management platform; AtlasViewer, a mapping and data visualization platform. In addition, it is involved in reciprocal exchange operations; and developing and operating commercial properties for investment purposes. The company was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. and changed its name to HCI Group, Inc. in May 2013. HCI Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HCI Group reported revenue of $901M in FY2025 versus $403M in FY2021, a compound +22.3%/yr. Reported net income was $299M in FY2025, compounding +256.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- HCI Group (HCI) Laps the Stock Market: Here's Why
- Why HCI Group (HCI) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again
- HCI Group (HCI) Upgraded to Strong Buy: Here's Why
- Investors Heavily Search HCI Group, Inc. (HCI): Here is What You Need to Know
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chubb Limited C1BL34 | R$380.31 | R$420.71 | +11% |
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $204.20 | $316.22 | +55% |
| Tokio Marine Holdings TKOMF | $42.80 | $44.64 | +4% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $310.61 | $384.42 | +24% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $222.56 | $445.12 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥6.57 | ¥13.14 | +100% |
| PICC Property and Casualty Company PPCCY | $46.75 | $79.22 | +69% |
| MS&AD Insurance Group MSADF | $29.91 | $57.59 | +93% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$275.92 | C$217.97 | -21% |
| Sompo Holdings SMPNY | $21.65 | $30.16 | +39% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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