Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V MXN 7.47, price MXN 5.37, upside +39.1%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19, S.A.B. de C.V. develops, operates, and manages hotels in Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Chile. The company operates hotels under the City Express by Marriott, City Express Suites by Marriott, City Express Junior by Marriott, City Express Plus by Marriott, and City Centro by Marriott brands.
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Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19, S.A.B. de C.V. develops, operates, and manages hotels in Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Chile. The company operates hotels under the City Express by Marriott, City Express Suites by Marriott, City Express Junior by Marriott, City Express Plus by Marriott, and City Centro by Marriott brands. It also provides restaurant operation and catering services. The company was formerly known as Hoteles City Express, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2024. Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY) currently trades at 5.37 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.47 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 28.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 24.48 MXN per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the 5.37 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.45 MXN, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 3.2B MXN in FY2022 versus 2.9B MXN in FY2018, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 35.1M MXN in FY2022, compounding −40.4%/yr from FY2018.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3B MXN (≈ $129M) · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) −0.3600 MXN · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity −1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 19.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 39%, HCITY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 7.47 MXNFair Value 7.47 MXNBull 7.47 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−33.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 15%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.6% a year for the price.
Compare Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 158 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+39.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−3.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)19.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCITY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.47 MXN versus a price of 5.37 MXN, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HCITY?
Our model-based fair value for Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 7.47 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5.37 MXN.
What is the quality score of HCITY?
Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.47 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.47 MXN, about +39% upside versus a price of 5.37 MXN (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCITY use?
Our models discount Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V that is +1.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +1.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (+1.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.18 %: that much free cash flow Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V it is 7.47 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 5.37 MXN. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HCITY trades below its calculated fair value: price 5.37 MXN, fair value 7.47 MXN, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCITY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5.37 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.47 MXN). For Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V the two are 2.10 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V at about 2.3B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 5.37 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 7.47 MXN per share.
What is the PEG ratio of HCITY?
The PEG ratio of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −1.4%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCITY from its 52-week high?
Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V trades at 5.37 MXN, about 23% below its 52-week high of 7.00 MXN and 10% above the low of 4.90 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.47 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 5.37 MXN, calculated fair value 7.47 MXN (+39%), Quality Score 68/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCITY calculated?
We run Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.47 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 5.37 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 7.47 MXN, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (7.47 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The market capitalisation of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 2.3B MXN (≈ $129M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Earnings per share at Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V are −0.3600 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The dividend yield of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The net margin of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 1.1% (fiscal year 2022). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
The operating margin of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Revenue at Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY)?
Earnings per share at Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V are growing +367% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V (HCITY) carry?
The net debt of Hoteles City Express S.A.B. de C.V is 5.1B MXN (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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