Holcim AG (HCMLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $53.1B
Holcim AG
HCMLY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $9.04 to $9.03 (−0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.23 – $20.50 · fair‑value band $8.07 – $11.28 · the $17.49 price screens above the $9.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Holcim AG (HCMLY) currently trades at $17.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.03, implying the stock looks roughly 48.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Holcim AG generated revenue of $15.7B at a net margin of 83.8%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at $4.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.07 (bear case) to $11.28 (bull case); at $17.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -48%, HCMLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($7.57) versus Earnings-Based ($2.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
Full company description
Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Holcim AG reported revenue of $15.7B in FY2025 versus $26.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was $804M in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.
HCMLY screens 48% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Holcim Warns Labor Shortage Could Slow Europe Construction Recovery
- Lone Star Funds Completes Sale of Xella to Holcim
Peer Group
Building Materials · 254 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $102.92 | $70.57 | -31% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,711 | ₹4,719 | -60% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥54.52 | ¥13.95 | -74% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,073 | ₹1,245 | -59% |
| CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO | 21.71 MXN | 15.42 MXN | -29% |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 | ¥16.99 | ¥26.14 | +54% |
| Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM | ₹435.25 | ₹227.96 | -48% |
| Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM | ₹26,930 | ₹8,215 | -69% |
| TCC Group 1101B | 43.70 TWD | 10.48 TWD | -76% |
| Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 | 53.30 TWD | 13.98 TWD | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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