HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) (HCW) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$393M
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +7.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.4100 to A$0.7400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range A$0.6050 – A$1.93 · fair‑value band A$0.4100 – A$0.7400 · the A$0.7400 price screens above the A$0.5500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) (HCW) currently trades at A$0.7400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 25.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$61.7M. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.3%. Net debt stands at A$408M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.4100 (bear case) to A$0.7400 (bull case); at A$0.7400, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -26%, HCW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$1.17) versus Growth DCF (A$0.5100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) is a Real Estate Investment Trust listed on the ASX focused on owning healthcare and wellness property assets.
Full company description
HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) is a Real Estate Investment Trust listed on the ASX focused on owning healthcare and wellness property assets. The REIT's objective is to provide exposure to a diversified portfolio underpinned by healthcare sector megatrends, targeting stable and growing distributions, long-term capital growth and positive environmental and social impact. HCW is Australia's leading diversified healthcare REIT with a combined portfolio size of 1.4 billion US dollars. HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT was incorporated on July 30th, 2021 in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) reported revenue of A$53.0M in FY2025 versus A$24.5M in FY2022, a compound +29.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$88.8M in FY2025.
HCW screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Welltower Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welltower Inc WELL | $231.59 | $42.21 | -82% |
| Ventas, Inc VTR | $100.53 | $18.07 | -82% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $47.39 | $33.54 | -29% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $22.27 | $7.02 | -68% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $56.38 | $11.04 | -80% |
| CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE | $43.25 | $23.07 | -47% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $21.40 | $20.60 | -4% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €69.85 | €36.17 | -48% |
| Chartwell Retirement Residences CSHUN | C$22.81 | C$3.52 | -85% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $22.36 | $10.49 | -53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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