Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT A$1.31, price A$0.75, upside +74.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6050 – A$1.93 · fair‑value band A$0.8400 – A$1.99 · the A$0.7500 price screens below the A$1.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) is a Real Estate Investment Trust listed on the ASX focused on owning healthcare and wellness property assets.
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HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW) is a Real Estate Investment Trust listed on the ASX focused on owning healthcare and wellness property assets. The REIT's objective is to provide exposure to a diversified portfolio underpinned by healthcare sector megatrends, targeting stable and growing distributions, long-term capital growth and positive environmental and social impact. HCW is Australia's leading diversified healthcare REIT with a combined portfolio size of 1.4 billion US dollars. HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT was incorporated on July 30th, 2021 in Australia.
Stock analysis
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) currently trades at A$0.7500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.31, implying the stock looks roughly 42.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.53 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$0.7500 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.7000, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.8400 (bear) to A$1.99 (bull), the price of A$0.7500 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT reported revenue of A$59.0M in FY2026 versus A$24.5M in FY2022, a compound +24.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$49.7M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$413M (≈ $290M) · P/E ex one-offs 18.8 · P/S ratio 6.88 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0900 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin −84.2% · Return on equity −6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 75%, HCW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.8400Fair Value A$1.31Bull A$1.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.6% a year for the price and −6.6% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCW
Frequently asked questions
Is Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.31 versus a price of A$0.7500, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HCW?
Our model-based fair value for Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is A$1.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.7500.
What is the quality score of HCW?
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.8400, optimistic scenario A$1.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.31, about +75% upside versus a price of A$0.7500 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.8400, optimistic scenario A$1.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$57.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT pay a dividend?
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +24.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCW use?
Our models discount Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT that is +28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT grew +24.6 % a year. The price currently implies +28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (+28.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.36 %: that much free cash flow Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT it is A$1.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.7500. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HCW trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.7500, fair value A$1.31, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.7500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.31). For Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT the two are A$0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT worth?
The market values Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT at about A$413M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.7500; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCW?
Our models span a range for Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT: cautious scenario A$0.8400, base A$1.31, optimistic A$1.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.7500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCW from its 52-week high?
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT trades at A$0.7500, about 10% below its 52-week high of A$0.8300 and 24% above the low of A$0.6050 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Welltower Inc, Ventas, Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.7500, calculated fair value A$1.31 (+75%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCW calculated?
We run Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT currently trades 75 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.7500. Our model-based fair value is A$1.31, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.8400). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.8400 to A$1.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The market capitalisation of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is A$413M (≈ $290M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is 18.8 (fiscal year 2026, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is 6.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Earnings per share at Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT are A$−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The dividend yield of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is 8.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The net margin of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is −84.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is −6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
The operating margin of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is 68.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Revenue at Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is growing −14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)?
Earnings per share at Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT are growing −53.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) carry?
The net debt of Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT is A$319M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 17.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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