National Health Investors, Inc (NHI) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $3.4B
National Health Investors, Inc
NHI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($62.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.33 – $90.00 · fair‑value band $36.90 – $62.33 · the $75.30 price screens above the $49.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
National Health Investors, Inc (NHI) currently trades at $75.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.86, implying the stock looks roughly 33.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Health Investors, Inc generated revenue of $405M at a net margin of 36.6%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.90 (bear case) to $62.33 (bull case); at $75.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -34%, NHI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($59.47) versus Asset-Based ($21.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Health Investors, Inc. is a self-managed real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical facility investments.
Full company description
National Health Investors, Inc. is a self-managed real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical facility investments. NHI's portfolio consists of independent living facilities, assisted living and memory care communities, entrance-fee retirement communities, senior living campuses, skilled nursing facilities and specialty hospitals. National Health Investors, Inc. was established on October 15th 1991 and was incorporated in 1991 in Maryland and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National Health Investors, Inc reported revenue of $379M in FY2025 versus $299M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was $142M in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
NHI screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Welltower Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PEB vs. NHI: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- NHI Appoints Chris Maingot as Chief Operating Officer
- NHI Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Dates
- SHO or NHI: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
Peer Group
REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welltower Inc WELL | $231.59 | $42.21 | -82% |
| Ventas, Inc VTR | $100.53 | $18.07 | -82% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $51.72 | $33.69 | -35% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $22.27 | $7.02 | -68% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $56.38 | $11.04 | -80% |
| CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE | $43.25 | $23.07 | -47% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $21.40 | $20.60 | -4% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €69.85 | €36.17 | -48% |
| Chartwell Retirement Residences CSHUN | C$22.81 | C$3.52 | -85% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $22.36 | $10.49 | -53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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