Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Les Hôtels de Paris SA €1.89, price €1.88, upside +0.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.00 – €4.28 · fair‑value band €1.08 – €2.36 · the €1.88 price screens below the €1.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Les Hôtels de Paris SA operates and manages hotels in Paris. The company offers accommodation; food and beverage services; and renovation and operation of hotels, including major projects like Kraft Paris, a 4-star hotel at Porte de Versailles, and La Maison Eugénie and Le Montijo, a 4-star hotel on rue de Rome in Paris.
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Les Hôtels de Paris SA operates and manages hotels in Paris. The company offers accommodation; food and beverage services; and renovation and operation of hotels, including major projects like Kraft Paris, a 4-star hotel at Porte de Versailles, and La Maison Eugénie and Le Montijo, a 4-star hotel on rue de Rome in Paris. It also manages the Marrakech establishment through AMAZIGH RESORT, focusing on hotel operations. Les Hôtels de Paris SA was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP) currently trades at €1.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.89, implying the stock looks roughly 0.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 12 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: €1.08 (bear) to €2.36 (bull), the price of €1.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Les Hôtels de Paris SA reported revenue of €45.3M in FY2025 versus €17.8M in FY2021, a compound +26.4%/yr. Reported net income was €11.7M in FY2025, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €13.9M · P/E ratio 1.2 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) €1.59 · Net margin 25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin 123% · Revenue (TTM) €45.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 1%, HDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.08Fair Value €1.89Bull €2.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24% vs 2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−41% → 69%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 168 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)123% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)1.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.35× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG6.35× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)34· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Les Hôtels de Paris SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDP
Frequently asked questions
Is Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.89 versus a price of €1.88, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HDP?
Our model-based fair value for Les Hôtels de Paris SA is €1.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.88.
What is the quality score of HDP?
Les Hôtels de Paris SA has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.08, optimistic scenario €2.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Les Hôtels de Paris SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.89, about +1% upside versus a price of €1.88 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €1.08, optimistic scenario €2.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Les Hôtels de Paris SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €45.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Les Hôtels de Paris SA it is €1.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.88. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Les Hôtels de Paris SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HDP trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.88, fair value €1.89, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.89). For Les Hôtels de Paris SA the two are €0.0100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Les Hôtels de Paris SA worth?
The market values Les Hôtels de Paris SA at about €13.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.88; our models calculate a fair value of €1.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDP?
Our models span a range for Les Hôtels de Paris SA: cautious scenario €1.08, base €1.89, optimistic €2.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDP?
Les Hôtels de Paris SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HDP?
The PEG ratio of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is 6.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Les Hôtels de Paris SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDP from its 52-week high?
Les Hôtels de Paris SA trades at €1.88, about 15% below its 52-week high of €2.20 and 14% above the low of €1.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Les Hôtels de Paris SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Les Hôtels de Paris SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.88, calculated fair value €1.89 (+1%), Quality Score 44/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDP calculated?
We run Les Hôtels de Paris SA through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Les Hôtels de Paris SA currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €1.88. Our model-based fair value is €1.89, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Les Hôtels de Paris SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€1.08 to €2.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Les Hôtels de Paris SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
The market capitalisation of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is €13.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Earnings per share at Les Hôtels de Paris SA are €1.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
The net margin of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is 25.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
The operating margin of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is 123% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Revenue at Les Hôtels de Paris SA is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP)?
Earnings per share at Les Hôtels de Paris SA are growing +582% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP) generate?
The free cash flow of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is −€52.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Les Hôtels de Paris SA (HDP) carry?
The net debt of Les Hôtels de Paris SA is €195M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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