Halfords Group (HFD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 517M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from £4.98 to £3.32 (−33.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 39% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.01 – £3.33 · fair‑value band £2.49 – £4.15 · the £2.40 price screens below the £3.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Halfords Group (HFD) currently trades at £2.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.32, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Halfords Group generated revenue of £1.7B at a net margin of -1.9%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.5%. Net debt stands at £229M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.49 (bear case) to £4.15 (bull case); at £2.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 39%, HFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£6.13) versus Earnings-Based (£0.7900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Halfords Group plc, through its subsidiaries, provides motoring and cycling products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through two segments, Retail and Autocentres.
Full company description
Halfords Group plc, through its subsidiaries, provides motoring and cycling products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through two segments, Retail and Autocentres. The company offers batteries; car parts, cleaning solutions, seats, and accessories; engine oils and fluids; tyres; tools; baby and child car accessories; bulbs; wiper blades; roof bars and boxes; number plates; camping; and travel accessories. The company also offers bikes; electric and refurbished bikes; bike accessories, parts, racks, and helmets; cycling clothing; scooters; second hand electric scooters; turbo trainers; bike services and repairs; and cycling technologies. In addition, it offers car warranty, checks, and mobile fitting services. It sells its products and services through retail stores and online platform. Further, it provides vehicle servicing and repair from garages and mobile vans; and Avayler, Software-as-a-Service platform. Halfords Group plc was founded in 1892 and is based in Redditch, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Halfords Group reported revenue of £1.8B in FY2026 versus £1.4B in FY2022, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was £32.9M in FY2026, compounding −19.3%/yr from FY2022.
Watch HFD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare Halfords Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Halfords Group (HFD) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of HFD?
What is the quality score of HFD?
What is the revenue of Halfords Group (HFD)?
What is the net profit margin of HFD?
Does Halfords Group pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Halfords Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.