Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited $25.49, price $19.45, upside +31.1%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6307 – $25.17 · fair‑value band $16.96 – $33.13 · the $19.45 price screens below the $25.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits.
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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa. In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF) currently trades at $19.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.49, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.89 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $19.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.11, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.96 (bear) to $33.13 (bull), the price of $19.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported revenue of 73.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 41.7B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was 14.4B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +29.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.2B · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) $1.59 · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 33.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9% · Operating margin 33.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 31%, HGMCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.96Fair Value $25.49Bull $33.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+47.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.6% vs 26.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 28%
2025 sits 114% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.0% a year for the price and +21.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+31.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)33.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)20.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)33.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)39.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGMCF
Frequently asked questions
Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.49 versus a price of $19.45, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HGMCF?
Our model-based fair value for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is $25.49 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.45.
What is the quality score of HGMCF?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.49 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.96, optimistic scenario $33.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.49, about +31% upside versus a price of $19.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.96, optimistic scenario $33.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 81.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HGMCF use?
Our models discount Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited grew +20.4 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.30 %: that much free cash flow Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited it is $25.49 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $19.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HGMCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.45, fair value $25.49, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGMCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.49). For Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited the two are $6.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited worth?
The market values Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited at about $12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $19.45; our models calculate a fair value of $25.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGMCF?
Our models span a range for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited: cautious scenario $16.96, base $25.49, optimistic $33.13 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $19.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HGMCF?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 33.5%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGMCF from its 52-week high?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited trades at $19.45, about 23% below its 52-week high of $25.17 and 36% above the low of $14.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $19.45, calculated fair value $25.49 (+31%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGMCF calculated?
We run Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $19.45. Our model-based fair value is $25.49, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($16.96 to $33.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The market capitalisation of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is $12.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is 2.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Earnings per share at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited are $1.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The net margin of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is 19.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is 33.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is 13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
The operating margin of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Revenue at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is growing +19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF)?
Earnings per share at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited are growing +22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HGMCF) hold?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited holds more cash than debt, 10.9B ZAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026