Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Heineken N.V (HINKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heineken N.V $71.82, price $80.00, upside -10.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN NL0000009165

Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Heineken N.V

HINKF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $71.82 · Overvalued (−10.2%)

✓Quality 62/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 6.6% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

✓2.4% dividend yield · Well covered

!Moderate moat 56/100

26 models, one by oneBear $41.67 to bull $100.15 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 62/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $62.73 – $110.25 · fair‑value band $41.67 – $100.15 · the $80.00 price screens above the $71.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks.

Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.

Stock analysis

Heineken N.V (HINKF) currently trades at $80.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.82, 10.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $69.66 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the $80.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $27.95, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $41.67 (bear) to $100.15 (bull), the price of $80.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Heineken N.V reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $44.4B · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) $3.92 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −10%, HINKF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $41.67 Fair Value $71.82 Bull $100.15

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.53 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $44.08 $71.76 $110.82 79

Growth DCF $46.10 $72.06 $107.22 78

Residual Income $36.16 $39.49 $46.45 76

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $44.08 $71.76 $110.82 79

Owner Earnings $32.12 $54.70 $86.55 75

5Y Revenue Exit $39.22 $68.87 $105.07 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $67.45 $118.67 $175.62 74

5Y P/E Exit $36.24 $63.61 $90.48 70

10Y Revenue Exit $38.72 $65.44 $97.87 66

10Y EBITDA Exit $58.05 $98.96 $148.91 67

10Y P/E Exit $38.60 $61.89 $87.32 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $25.94 $57.75 $73.75 66

PEG = 1.0 $9.32 $13.31 $17.31 57

EPV $21.68 $28.75 $34.94 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $23.71 $38.13 $54.40 68

DDM Multi-Stage $23.71 $34.50 $46.59 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $60.09 $80.12 $100.15 63

P/S Multiple $48.64 $64.86 $81.07 58

P/B Multiple $48.64 $64.86 $81.07 55

EV/EBIT $65.24 $93.90 $122.56 65

EV/EBITDA $95.67 $134.47 $173.27 67

EV/Revenue $40.36 $66.55 $92.74 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $20.86 $27.95 $41.72 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $46.10 $72.06 $107.22 78

Rev-Margin DCF $39.22 $69.66 $101.96 72

Economic Profit

Residual Income $36.16 $39.49 $46.45 76

ROIC Compounder $21.68 $28.75 $34.94 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $44.79 $63.99 $83.19 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 36

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 43

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 60

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 45

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 87

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 74

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 36

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 28

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 97

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 70/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−3.6%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+0.0%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year

Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+3.4%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−4.2%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 12%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations

The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+7.0%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+4.2%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.0%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.8%

Projected 2028 (sales)+3.6%

Projected 2029 (sales)+3.3%

Projected 2030 (sales)+3.1%

HINKF screens overvalued: fair value 10% below the price. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (74 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral

Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Heineken Sees Vietnam, India, China as Growth Markets Yahoo Finance · Sep 28, 2026
Heineken (ENXTAM:HEIA) Buyback Keeps Undervalued Narrative In Focus Yahoo Finance · Sep 23, 2026

Compare Heineken N.V with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 62 · Above median

Fair Value upside −16.6% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 9.9% · Above median

Return on assets 4.3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 6.6% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 13.4% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −2.8% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.73× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.4× · Priciest 25%

P/B 2.19× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.57× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 17.3× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Pricier than median

PEG 1.26× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI	€64.56	€61.20	−5%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX	$118.85	$28.57	−76%
Heineken Holding HEIO	€65.30	€64.09	−2%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ	$112.99	$183.71	+63%
Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600	¥49.89	¥63.71	+28%
Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP	$35.95	$79.18	+120%
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729	¥10.78	¥11.10	+3%
United Breweries Limited UBL	₹1,158	₹141.82	−88%
Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW	kr 411.40	kr 662.99	+61%
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co 002461	¥8.39	¥7.21	−14%

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Heineken N.V · Fair Value
$71.82 −10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heineken N.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HINKF

Frequently asked questions

Is Heineken N.V (HINKF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $71.82 versus a price of $80.00, about −10% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of HINKF?

Our model-based fair value for Heineken N.V is $71.82 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $80.00.

What is the quality score of HINKF?

Heineken N.V has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $71.82 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.67, optimistic scenario $100.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Heineken N.V stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $71.82, about −10% upside versus a price of $80.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.67, optimistic scenario $100.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Heineken N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €28.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).

Does Heineken N.V pay a dividend?

Heineken N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.38% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).

What growth is priced into Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heineken N.V would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HINKF use?

Our models discount Heineken N.V at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heineken N.V that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Heineken N.V (HINKF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Heineken N.V grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Heineken N.V (HINKF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heineken N.V (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.61 %: that much free cash flow Heineken N.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken N.V it is $71.82 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $80.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Heineken N.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 3, 2026, HINKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $80.00, fair value $71.82, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of HINKF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($80.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($71.82). For Heineken N.V the two are $8.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Heineken N.V worth?

The market values Heineken N.V at about $44.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $80.00; our models calculate a fair value of $71.82 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HINKF?

Our models span a range for Heineken N.V: cautious scenario $41.67, base $71.82, optimistic $100.15 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $80.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of HINKF?

Heineken N.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $71.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.0.

What is the PEG ratio of HINKF?

The PEG ratio of Heineken N.V is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Heineken N.V (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is HINKF from its 52-week high?

Heineken N.V trades at $80.00, about 15% below its 52-week high of $94.53 and 11% above the low of $72.03 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $71.82 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Heineken N.V?

From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Heineken N.V stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $80.00, calculated fair value $71.82 (−10%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of HINKF calculated?

We run Heineken N.V through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $71.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heineken N.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $80.00. Our model-based fair value is $71.82, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Heineken N.V right now?

A fairly wide model range ($41.67 to $100.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of Heineken N.V

How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The market capitalisation of Heineken N.V is $44.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken N.V is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Earnings per share at Heineken N.V are $3.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The dividend yield of Heineken N.V is 2.4% (payout 48.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The net margin of Heineken N.V is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken N.V is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken N.V is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

The operating margin of Heineken N.V is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Revenue at Heineken N.V is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Heineken N.V (HINKF)?

Earnings per share at Heineken N.V are growing +7.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Heineken N.V (HINKF) carry?

The net debt of Heineken N.V is €13.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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