h JD HK SDR 10to1 (HJDD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SG · Market cap 4.6B SGD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 1.26 SGD to 1.22 SGD (−3.5%) since Aug 9, 2026. Share price −2.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.74 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range 1.55 SGD – 2.30 SGD · fair‑value band 1.09 SGD – 1.74 SGD · the 1.86 SGD price screens above the 1.22 SGD fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
h JD HK SDR 10to1 (HJDD) currently trades at 1.86 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.22 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 34.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, h JD HK SDR 10to1 generated revenue of 1.3T SGD at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.0%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 2.1. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.09 SGD (bear case) to 1.74 SGD (bull case); at 1.86 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -35%, HJDD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (1.88 SGD) versus Economic Profit (0.6243 SGD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses.
Full company description
JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
h JD HK SDR 10to1 reported revenue of 1.3T SGD in FY2025 versus 952B SGD in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 19.6B SGD in FY2025.
HJDD screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc 1AMZN | €231.35 | €79.98 | -65% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $125.22 | $76.00 | -39% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $89.04 | $224.27 | +152% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,828 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $212.00 | $38.64 | -82% |
| Sea Limited SE | $128.11 | $52.70 | -59% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $102.31 | $60.13 | -41% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €27.00 | €31.73 | +18% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.04 | €12.71 | -66% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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