Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
Heineken Holding (HKHHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heineken Holding $81.64, price $71.13, upside +14.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
- Add to watchlist
HH
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Heineken Holding
HKHHF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $81.64 · Undervalued (+14.8%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 51/100
Watch Heineken Holding for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.
Watch for free
Pro now: $1 first month
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.54 – $89.50 · fair‑value band $61.23 – $102.05 · the $71.13 price screens below the $81.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders.
Show more
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.
Stock analysis
Heineken Holding (HKHHF) currently trades at $71.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.64, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $137.55 per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the $71.13 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $53.93, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $61.23 (bear) to $102.05 (bull), the price of $71.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heineken Holding reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €952M in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $19.8B · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $3.93 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 15%, HKHHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $61.23
Fair Value $81.64
Bull $102.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.54 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$88.85
$144.59
$223.22
79
Growth DCF
$92.91
$145.17
$215.98
78
Residual Income
$63.78
$64.91
$68.28
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$88.85
$144.59
$223.22
79
Owner Earnings
$24.52
$52.78
$92.66
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$77.45
$135.92
$207.28
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$134.09
$235.85
$348.97
74
5Y P/E Exit
$39.93
$69.74
$98.59
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$77.13
$129.94
$193.99
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$115.85
$197.20
$296.49
67
10Y P/E Exit
$57.18
$85.39
$115.37
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$26.44
$58.84
$75.15
66
PEG = 1.0
$9.50
$13.57
$17.64
57
EPV
$40.27
$53.93
$65.88
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$47.84
$76.93
$109.76
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$47.84
$69.60
$94.00
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$61.23
$81.64
$102.05
63
P/S Multiple
$49.57
$66.09
$82.61
58
P/B Multiple
$49.57
$66.09
$82.61
55
EV/EBIT
$126.92
$183.12
$239.31
65
EV/EBITDA
$189.46
$266.50
$343.55
67
EV/Revenue
$78.66
$130.22
$181.79
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$41.52
$55.64
$83.04
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$92.91
$145.17
$215.98
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$77.45
$137.55
$201.34
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$63.78
$64.91
$68.28
76
ROIC Compounder
$40.27
$53.93
$65.88
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$45.65
$65.21
$84.77
67
Notify me when HKHHF reaches fair value
Put HKHHF on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Profitability
30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.1% a year for the price.
Watch HKHHF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (33 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Heineken (ENXTAM:HEIA) Buyback Keeps Undervalued Narrative In Focus
- Heineken Holding N.V. reports transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken N.V. reports the progress of transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken Holding N.V. reports transactions under its current share buyback programme
Compare Heineken Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €64.56 | €61.20 | −5% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €69.66 | €69.18 | −1% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $118.85 | $28.57 | −76% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $112.99 | $183.71 | +63% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥49.89 | ¥63.71 | +28% |
| Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP | $35.95 | $79.18 | +120% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥10.78 | ¥11.10 | +3% |
| United Breweries Limited UBL | ₹1,158 | ₹141.82 | −88% |
| Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW | kr 411.40 | kr 662.99 | +61% |
| Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co 002461 | ¥8.39 | ¥7.21 | −14% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Heineken Holding (HKHHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $81.64 versus a price of $71.13, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HKHHF?
Our model-based fair value for Heineken Holding is $81.64 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $71.13.
What is the quality score of HKHHF?
Heineken Holding has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $81.64 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $61.23, optimistic scenario $102.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heineken Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $81.64, about +15% upside versus a price of $71.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $61.23, optimistic scenario $102.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Heineken Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €28.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Heineken Holding pay a dividend?
Heineken Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.67% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heineken Holding would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKHHF use?
Our models discount Heineken Holding at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heineken Holding that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heineken Holding (HKHHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heineken Holding grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heineken Holding (HKHHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heineken Holding (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.86 %: that much free cash flow Heineken Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken Holding it is $81.64 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $71.13. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heineken Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HKHHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $71.13, fair value $81.64, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKHHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($71.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($81.64). For Heineken Holding the two are $10.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heineken Holding worth?
The market values Heineken Holding at about $19.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $71.13; our models calculate a fair value of $81.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKHHF?
Our models span a range for Heineken Holding: cautious scenario $61.23, base $81.64, optimistic $102.05 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $71.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKHHF?
Heineken Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $81.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heineken Holding (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKHHF from its 52-week high?
Heineken Holding trades at $71.13, about 17% below its 52-week high of $85.68 and 13% above the low of $62.92 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $81.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heineken Holding?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heineken Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $71.13, calculated fair value $81.64 (+15%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKHHF calculated?
We run Heineken Holding through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $81.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heineken Holding currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $71.13. Our model-based fair value is $81.64, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heineken Holding right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Heineken Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The market capitalisation of Heineken Holding is $19.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken Holding is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Holding are $3.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The dividend yield of Heineken Holding is 2.7% (payout 48.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The net margin of Heineken Holding is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken Holding is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken Holding is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
The operating margin of Heineken Holding is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Revenue at Heineken Holding is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heineken Holding (HKHHF)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Holding are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heineken Holding (HKHHF) carry?
The net debt of Heineken Holding is €12.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Heineken Holding in the live analysis
One click puts Heineken Holding on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.